HSX Forum

Movies

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable

Posted by: RogerMore on Nov 06, 05:20 in response to islander's post So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a...

We also miss the OW by 50% or more one time out of five.

Though I think predicting 4 weeks is generally harder than one weekend because there are more factors to consider.

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 {nm} Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Onslaught (ONSLT) 150000 16.23 (-1.48)          Onslaught (ONSLT) 150000 16.23 (-1.48)          Maya Hawke (MHAWK) 25000 57.50 (+0.09)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 150000 4.60 (+0.45)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 150000 4.60 (+0.45)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 10000 6.60 (+0.01)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 150000 144.45 (+6.71)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 150000 144.45 (+6.71)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          MaXXXine (XTW3) 10000 12.11 (+0.02)          Despicable Me 4 (DESM4) 73786 270.23 (-1.85)          Longlegs (LNLEG) 10000 11.43 (-0.08)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 82.31 (+2.31)          Is This Thing On? (ISTON) 150000 19.45 (-0.12)          Is This Thing On? (ISTON) 150000 19.45 (-0.12)          Despicable Me 4 (DESM4) 10000 270.23 (-1.85)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 82.31 (+2.31)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 100000 323.88 (+12.67)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 150000 144.45 (+6.71)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 10000 192.25 (-0.22)          They Listen (THEYL) 150000 30.01 (+0.10)          Wicked (WICKD) 10000 152.62 (+0.58)          Maya Hawke (MHAWK) 25000 57.50 (+0.09)          Isabella Rossellini (IROSS) 23609 38.31 (-1.33)          Smurfs (SMRF4) 150000 31.03 (-0.06)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 371 82.31 (+2.31)          Isabella Rossellini (IROSS) 1391 38.31 (-1.33)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 40000 82.31 (+2.31)          Ayo Edebiri (AEDEB) 229 60.54 (+1.17)          Despicable Me 4 (DESM4) 150000 270.23 (-1.85)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Firebrand (FRBRN) 150000 2.18 (-0.05)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Firebrand (FRBRN) 150000 2.18 (-0.05)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 100 80.00 (0.00)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 100 80.00 (0.00)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 150000 4.60 (+0.45)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 103046 14.67 (-0.12)          Father Mother Sister Brother (FMSB) 81643 4.91 (+1.43)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 9.38 (-0.06)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Firebrand (FRBRN) 150000 2.18 (-0.05)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Firebrand (FRBRN) 150000 2.18 (-0.05)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK.OW) 100000 4.27 (-0.16)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 150000 7.61 (-0.11)