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A few thoughts on the holdovers based on Friday numbers
Weekend 4:
SPLIT - Should delist above $111. It would have adjusted to $108 in the good old days, so a nice leggy run in a genre not known for legs.
XXX3 - Looks to delist a little shy of $43, a sad 2.1x-ish delist multiplier.
FONDR - Looks to delist a bit above $11, a fairly standard 3.25x delist mult considering the much older demo
20CWM/TROGS - Did not report Friday numbers
Weekend 3:
RESE6 - On its way to a 75% drop this weekend and a delist mult under 2.0x. It won't have enough theaters left to take much advantage of the upcoming holiday weekend. $25.75-$26 seems like a reasonable target delist range.
ADOGP - Should see a similar drop, or maybe a touch better, to last weekend, around 35-40%. I'm not sure how much of a Valentine's day bump this will get, but as it's performing solidly like a kids movie (high IMs, low mid-week numbers), it should do a healthy number President's Day. Kid friendly movie often go up when comparing this 3-day weekend to the P-Day 4-day weekend (Last year Kung-Fu Panda 3 was up 22%, 2 years ago Paddington was up 10.5%, though Sponge Bob was down 28%). Figure $50+ is still in play, though by no means a guarantee.
GOLDX - A brutal drop near 90%. This one is done and should wind up with a delist mult of under 2.1x, somewhere around $7.10-$7.15
Weekend 2:
RING3 - Looks to drop somewhere in the 60-65% range. Not surprisingly on its way to a sub 2.1x delist, even with various holiday bumps upcoming.
OUTTW - A drop somewhere in the 60% area would normally mean 2.25x of less this time of year, however this is likely the choice for tweens/teens on Valentine's Day or the day off on President's Day. Maybe that brings it up to 2.4x-2.5? That's roughly $9-$9.5. This is just a guess though, maybe I'm underestimating how much of a bump it will get on V-Day.
LION - Continues its incredibly leggy run. Looks to drop somewhere in the 5% range this weekend. Can this get to $40 by delist? If it keeps dropping by only 5% yes, though it's bound to start having larger drops at some point. When that happens is anyone's guess.
COMDN - Hasn't reported an actual since last Sunday, so no idea where this one is going, though the lack of reporting seem odd to me and a concern.
A few thoughts on the holdovers based on Friday numbers Feb 11, 17:01
Regarding COMDN, SPC doesn't normally release daily actuals - just weekend totals on Sunday and weekly totals on Thursday Feb 11, 17:08
Thanks Shadowking. {nm} Feb 11, 20:18
BTW, both RESE6 and GOLDX lost around 1900 theaters in their third weekends, which can be credited for those death-drops Feb 12, 02:06
Awesome post Shadowking - keep them coming {nm} Feb 12, 07:42
