Movies

BO.com Weekend Forecast: JLEAG $125m, WONDE $17m, TLAMB $7.5m RollingThunder Nov 16, 12:35

So for comp, We would need around $14.8m in previews if JLEAG gets the same IM as THOR3 {nm} tomcat90 Nov 16, 12:45

What about SUPE2 and SUICD? {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 12:49

Well comp to those two would be a much higher number, given that they had much worse RT scores and still had much bigger OW's then $125m {nm} tomcat90 Nov 16, 12:52

JLEAG's RT score is closer to SUPE2/SUICD than THOR3, not to mention they share the same DCEU. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 12:56

Right, so if SUICD had 26% and opened $133.7m, and SUPE2 had 27% and opened $166m, the JLEAG at 40% would be low at $125m for that comp {nm} tomcat90 Nov 16, 13:02

That's why I used THOR3 despite the huge diff in RT score. More current comp and a huge OW seems less likely {nm} tomcat90 Nov 16, 13:03

Doesn't make sense that you pick a less comparable comp than two other more comparable comps. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 13:07

Well based on that argument, with a RT score of 40, the OW would be better than both SUICD and SUPE2. Highly unlikely wouldn't you say? {nm} tomcat90 Nov 16, 13:10

Huh? I'm just taking about using the IM from SUPE2 and SUICD rather than the crowd-pleasing THOR3. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 13:12

So you're saying JLEAG isn't crowd pleasing? I'm waiting to see the cinemascore. {nm} -JPV- Nov 16, 13:22

Exactly. If JLEAG has the same Thursday to OW multiplier as SUICD, it will need previews of $19M+ to get an OW of $125M RogerMore Nov 16, 13:22

(and those are the better comparisons IMO) {nm} RogerMore Nov 16, 13:26

Curious what the 2nd week drop will be. Normally I'd expect 68% for this garbage but with Thanksgiving, maybe it gets a boost to 60% drop? {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Nov 16, 12:50

higher than that I would assume. (next) Friday is going to be pretty big. {nm} lobogotti Nov 16, 12:57

Very high 50s to low 60s most likely, but WOM may see a departure from historical trends. PLF screens will probably keep it around 60. {nm} RollingThunder Nov 16, 12:58

That would only be for Fri-Sun, right? Wed-THU will kick it up even more. {nm} hankquinlan Nov 16, 14:41

Last year FBSTS had a 40% drop. HGAM4 in 2015 and HGAM2 in 2013 were ~50% drops. None had especially great legs (though better than SUPE2 RogerMore Nov 16, 13:07

man, I have a hard time seeing $125M at current pre-sales, especially with Thor still thriving and RT at 40%. Wonder is at 83% now with lobogotti Nov 16, 12:55

I'm now expecting WONDE to be just that, a welcome sleeper for the holiday season. Perhaps a mini Blind Side? RollingThunder Nov 16, 12:59

if it can do half that buisness that would be awesome. I'm hoping for $60M by the end of next weekend. {nm} lobogotti Nov 16, 13:00

Not much interest in discussing TLAMB but it won't surprise me to see it be a record low OW for Sony Pictures Animation. BO looks close. {nm} RollingThunder Nov 16, 13:04

agreed {nm} lobogotti Nov 16, 13:05

local theaters for tlamb islndr Nov 16, 16:09

btw, Thursday numbers here aren't huge by any means, but Friday/Saturday numbers are starting to look outstanding. lobogotti Nov 16, 13:02

Well if the most recent reports are accurate, we'll probably end up a bit high. More and more leaning toward that 110-ish range but we'l see {nm} ShawnMR Nov 16, 17:41