Movies

ERC: SHAZAM! scored $3M on Monday, which is nearly $900k less than WATCHMEN on its first weekday, $2M less than GREEN LANTERN. Domestic tota tatoufan Apr 09, 09:16

Domestic total is now $59.8M. {nm} tatoufan Apr 09, 09:16

One caveat to Green Lantern, that one opened in June, so no schools in session. {nm} ~JPV~ Apr 09, 09:18

Good point. Some schools are out for spring break at the moment, but not too many. BOM is using Ant-Man (also a Summer release)... tatoufan Apr 09, 09:33

Shazam skews a lot younger than Watchmen IMO - young protagonist, more humour, no "adult situations", no R-rating, etc RogerMore Apr 09, 09:40

WM is a much darker world. I'm strugglinig to find a comp for this one. {nm} tatoufan Apr 09, 10:16

antman {nm} gogreen Apr 09, 10:18

spiderverse is better. Shazam played more asian, but the rest of the audience numbers line up well Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:28

Spiderverse benefitted from 2 lucrative holiday weeks. {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 10:33

i'm just talking about the audience since it was brought up that it skews younger (hence the phrase "adjust for seasonality") {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:35

which is hard to do for a leggy holiday film. Easier to find comps that doesn't open late Dec. {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 10:41

i have faith that *almost* everyone here can figure it out {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:46

If it's that easy then telll us what % would you take off if ASPDR had opened in Spring? {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 10:49

41.45% {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:57

So ASPDR would have made 134*0.59= 79 / 35 for a delist multiplier of 2.25? {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 11:08

no, off its total gross.I also factor in market conditions (weather, competition) on top of seasonality and dont have time this second to Moviesnob Apr 09, 11:23

Then you're predicting a total of $170M for Shazam. Let's see if you're right. :) {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 11:50

no, we're lower - like i said, there are other factors in play that get measured (my guess is its largely Endgame). {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 12:27

If there's so many external factors, then it's not an easy comp that everyone can figure out. {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 13:35

I see the audience similarities, but I thought ASPDR was a much better film. I don't see SHAZM having the same kind of legs. {nm} tatoufan Apr 09, 11:19

exit polls were better for Spidey, but its not far off {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 11:32

I hear you. There's no perfect single comp - what I do is pick a bunch of similar movies, with a range of outcomes and then see which one it RogerMore Apr 09, 11:20