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2010 Prediction Accuracy
Ok so some assumptions/points.
The data is for all of 2010 from January 8th.
Accuracy is calculated as 1 - (Difference/Actual).
There are no minuses, if a site went into minus I gave them 0% for the movie.
For HSX I calculate their prediction as halt price / the weekend adjust multiplier. If it is a weekend + previous box office then I just use the halt and adjust price to calculate accuracy.
For RS I estimate the figures based on the forum posts.
I can always make my data available if anyone is really interested.
Basically the morale of the table is everyone has great weekends and everyone can be off. Oh that and MTC kicks RS's arse. General rule of thumb also is the closer to Friday a prediction site gives their info the more accurate they are (except for BOG and MTC which are anomolies).
As for the legend, most are straight forward. BOF = xiayun (congrats man), NS = Nicole Sperling from EW, BO = BoxOffice.com, WW = CS, Lee = Lee's Movie Info.
| 2010 | ||
| 1. | BOF | 79.09% |
| 2. | MTC | 78.39% |
| 3. | NS | 78.00% |
| 4. | Lee | 76.44% |
| 5. | BO | 74.78% |
| 6. | WW | 73.70% |
| 9. | HSX | 73.48% |
| 7. | BOG | 71.50% |
| 8. | RS | 66.15% |
2010 Prediction Accuracy Jun 03, 20:45
I guess we suck...lol...thanks for posting this! {nm} Jun 03, 21:08
Thanks! {nm} Jun 03, 23:22
Very nice comparison. Thanks for taking the time! {nm} Jun 03, 23:39
What about BOP? They've been doing it longer than many of the others listed. {nm} Jun 04, 05:03
Ah yes, thanks for the prod. They are at 64.99% for the year. {nm} Jun 04, 05:32
BOP is notoriously terrible {nm} Jun 04, 09:30
Their stats have always been low but they give a consistent take every week with thoughtful write-up. Hats off to them. {nm} Jun 04, 09:47
That's true; wish they would learn from their misjudgement and try to improve on their reasoning over time though {nm} Jun 04, 10:56
Very nicely done! I am very interested in seeing Nicole Sperling's history if you don't mind sharing. {nm} Jun 04, 15:59
Sure Jun 04, 16:46
Thanks, brand new to Twitter, so not 100% sure how works, @ProudRyu Jun 07, 12:32
