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The first Downton Abbey was very frontloaded and dropped 30.8% Fri to Sat. They are using a similar multiplier, could go either way.
With the pre-opens being 50% lower, there's a chance the Fri-Sat drop won't be as severe and it could still eke out 20+ especially if the "secret" Wednesday # is closer to 500K that they are going sprinkle into the 3 day weekend (I doubt it's 500K, but no way to tell for now)
First film was $13-20 million budget (depending on the source) and almost made 200 million, they probably could eke out a third film presuming the budget for this one hasn't inflated to 30-40 million or something crazy.
DL FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: DWTA2 $8M Friday, MEN $1.4M-$1.5M (weekend projections inside) May 20, 17:18
The first Downton Abbey was very frontloaded and dropped 30.8% Fri to Sat. They are using a similar multiplier, could go either way. May 20, 17:39
Definitely looks like Downton Abbey could hit $20 million. Doesn't look as frontloaded. {nm} May 20, 17:55
Men is doomed. Might struggle to hit OW halt price... but not too much a loss either way. {nm} May 20, 17:56