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Before weekend numbers roll in Final thoughts on my "Minions" beating "Lightyear" prediction from earlier in year. Full context:
My goal is to be 80+ percent accurate in box office calls, which is considered elite. I had no idea, however, that my call on "Lightyear" early on would end up being the complete full reversal it was.. Take the projections for both "Minions" and "Lightyear" early on- switch them- and you ended up with the final result.
As noted on HSX, I was stunned how low the "Minions" projections were early in year.. This film had the 4th of July weekend booked as the only major new wide release. The franchise is still doing really well in numbers and fan support. Fans could easily make the argument the minions themselves are now more popular than the major "Despicable Me" characters. I saw upward mobility, some regression, but not full sequel fatigue.
I've been asked how I saw this over "Lightyear" for so long.. But the realty is is LY's marketing was just weak, colluded, and in some ways- downright depressing in tone... You go with the film with more momentum- always. That has been my general rule in box office anaylsis. The challenge is whether a film has geniune momentum, or is just being over-hyped purely in hopes of creating some. Alas, that is always the main question. I didn't see LY's marketing as generating much momentum for the film.
In closing, this will go down as one of my favorite predictions ever made.. Calling for this upset was not easy, but paid off. Love those calls. It does (pardon the Thanos pun) bring a smile to my face.. Hahaha.
As always HSX'ers. Have a great remaing Summer at the theaters.
Before weekend numbers roll in Final thoughts on my "Minions" beating "Lightyear" prediction from earlier in year. Full context: Jul 08, 05:30
I shorted Lightyear before it opened in the U.S. based on how Disney mishandled the international PR {NM} Jul 08, 07:25
in the pick 7, 36 of 55 placed LITYR ahead of MNIO2. (i think i counted right) Jul 08, 08:34
