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Wednesday openers almost always do between 2 and 5 times the Wednesday number for the first Friday to Sunday.
Even with no Thursday drop and 5x the Wednesday number, it's still a 25 point short.
The only exceptions to this range are fan boy/girl flicks that can come in a little under 2x (like TWLI3 is almost certain to do next week) and kid flicks that open during the school year like SHRK2 and POLAR that have done well above 5x. KNDAY is not a kid flick.
I can see an arguement that due to the late move to Wednesday and the lack of any real reason for frontloading that it may come in a bit above 5x, but it still looks like at least a 15 point short at the most optimistic.
Deadline: [KNDAY] Disappointing" $3.6 million {nm} Jun 24, 08:03
Sorry... stubby pinkie hit "Return" too early... Link inside Jun 24, 08:03
ERC twitters $3.8m - about $10m less than TS3 {nm} Jun 24, 08:12
But I wouldn't put the cart before the horse on this one... it never was going to be a rush-out-and-see type of movie. Jun 24, 08:17
That said, I can't imagine it doing more than $20 million over the three-day weekend and it's a short regardless. {nm} Jun 24, 08:17
A somewhat sizeable one at that... {nm} Jun 24, 09:32
Offhand, can you think of some Wednesday openers that increased on Thursday? {nm} Jun 24, 08:18
Men in Black increased 1.2 %, a couple of movies stayed basically flat: Jun 24, 08:38
All is not Lost! Jun 24, 08:38
Tom's Scientology Buddy Jun 24, 08:44
Couldn't you argue that there's far more films being released these days and those kind of legs are rarer? {nm} Jun 24, 08:47
Until July 16th Jun 24, 08:56
How is this a guaranteed short? Jun 24, 10:01
2.2 multiplier. {nm} Jun 24, 10:11
Not for KNDAY, no... {nm} Jun 24, 10:14
Wednesday openers almost always do between 2 and 5 times the Wednesday number for the first Friday to Sunday. Jun 24, 10:52
good to have you back. Hope to see your saturday analysis again someday {nm} Jun 24, 11:06
It's very difficult to get 100% Thurs-to-Friday increase in late June, regardless of the genre {nm} Jun 24, 11:18
Agreed.... Jun 24, 11:55
But that'll still be a sizeable short since the first two days won't get multiplied {nm} Jun 24, 12:28
Bada-bing, bada-boom..... *Ksschhh!* {nm} Jun 24, 12:34
Tom Cruise curse Jun 24, 20:18
