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As promised. Final thoughts on how I predicted last weekend would be biggest since 2019, which was dead on..--- (full anaylsis inside)
In a exclusive to HSX: I share my thought process on my predictions afterward, so HSX traders can learn how to read trends.
Here's how this one played out:
"Barbenheimer" was one of the best cross-promotions I've ever seen. They were even selling "Barbenheimer" posters to collectors. That's just un-heard of. Box office frame ended up 300+ million, easily biggest since 2019.
While most sites felt the weekend could be biggest since 2021, pre-pandemic, I was willing to go a step further and go all the way back to "Avengers: Endgame" frame which opened in 2019. The main reasons as follows:
#- Sound of Freedeom is a legit sleeper hit. Those numbers help carry a box office frame big.
#- Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning does still bring the older audience. Which means much bigger demo cross-over.
But the most important reason is this: which is strong word of mouth on Oppenheimer combined with Barbie brand appeal. I honestly felt Oppenheimer woudl be good and WAY over-perform box office projections. I felt an extra 35+ million (over projections) into the frame was do-able, and that would put it as best since 2019 off my number calculations. Having two legit blockbusters open on same weekend is rare to begin with, but these two had great cross-appeal.
Last weekend was a clear example of what happens when "concept" is the basis of marketing and not other factors. Barbie was a brand fantasy comedy, Oppenheimer was a ensemble Oscar epic and both brought in their targeted audiences in droves. Studios would be wise to continue to remain concept-driven on marketing going forward.
As for the future, I don't see Barbie topping Mario and have officially predicted Mario to remain the year's box office front-runner. (I see Mario fans are thrilled, haha). A big reason for this prediction is Mario posted an incredible 92+ million in it's second weekend (only a 36 percent drop) which remains one of the best holds i've ever seen for a blockbuster. Mario also was the top film for 4 straight weeks- the entire month of April. Barbie will still do very well, but I don't see a Mario-like box office run to the finish.
Happy trading, HSX.ers..... All the best.
As promised. Final thoughts on how I predicted last weekend would be biggest since 2019, which was dead on..--- (full anaylsis inside) Jul 27, 10:14
Thx. {nm} Jul 27, 10:21
My pleasure {nm} Jul 27, 10:21
which movie do you see dethroning BARBIE? {nm} Jul 27, 20:55
For the top box office spot? Either Oppenheimer or Blue Beetle in future weeks. Interesting enough. {nm} Jul 27, 21:58
