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$100 vs. $40 leaves a large gap, even a month out. MJ *should* be a gigantic worldwide hit, but something is sour in the trailer.

Posted by: jonjon on Mar 29, 20:57 in response to notfabio's post ECBO: Has flipped, no longer bullish on MICHAEL, presales...

Maybe it's just me but Jafaar Jackson doesn't look the part. I know he's MJ's cousin, but something is really missing and he must carry the movie and win over the audience. MJ was larger than life, good & bad, so maybe a biopic movie might have been better off later down the road. The Jackson family appears to have their hands all over it, meddling and putting constraints on the storytellers. In the past 10 years, Michael Jackson is easily No. 2 of all the musicians. Shoot, many could argue for MJ over Elvis. If an average to poor film with one incredible scene, such as Bohemian Rhapsody makes $216 in US, $694 worldwide, Michael should clear that with zero problem. I just thinks it's going to be bad to poor-minus and only plan on catching at home. I don't see Michael catching lightning in a bottle & music biopics are more prevant nowadays. I think MJ is a pass and it's back to wait & see on The Beatles movies, unless someone can film the trashy train wreck autobiography of Brittany Spears in the meantime. That sounds like an unauthorized movie Hulu might make.

I did a quick breakdown of last decade, plus Johnny Cash, based on overall popularity vs. box office. Rankings are subjective:

1. Elvis - Elvis Presley $151/US; $288.7 worldwide

2. Michael - Michael Jackson $?;$?

3. Sprinsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere - Bruce Springsteen $23/$45

4. I Wanna Dance With Somebody - Whitney Houston $25.4/$61.5

5. Bohemian Rhapsody - Freddie Mercury/Queen $216.7/$694.1

6. One True Love - Bob Marley $96.9/$180.8

7. Rocketman - Elton John $96.4/$195.2

8. Walk the Line - Johhny Cash $119.5/$186.4

9. A Complete Unknown - Bob Dylan $75/$140.5

10. Straight Outta Compton - N.W.A. $161.2/$201.6

11. Back to Black - Amy Winehouse $6.1/$50.8

ECBO: Has flipped, no longer bullish on MICHAEL, presales are trending closer to 40 than they are 100 million opening. notfabio Mar 29, 08:43

Hmm, WOR: “Michael,” which is absolutely killing it in ticket pre-sales. Internal tracking is hinting at an $80M–$90M Antibody Mar 29, 08:44

100-40 = 60/2 = 30, so he's saying less than $70M {nm} Antibody Mar 29, 08:46

BOT has it at $65M (52-75). Makes you wonder where all these "tracking" tracking numbers are sourced. Rocket Mar 29, 09:07

and BOP has $80M – $90M. Nobody knows anything. Antibody Mar 29, 09:15

So where do they get tracking numbers from? Can;t be the same source if they are all over the place... Rocket Mar 29, 09:20

WOR says "internal" which means Lionsgate. Real tracking comes 4 weeks out, so next week for MJACK. Others are just predicting. {nm} Antibody Mar 29, 09:26

Thanks. Rocket Mar 29, 09:31

Is Lionsgate even attending CinemaCon? That would seem like a great place to debut it.. if it's any good. {nm} TheWeekendWarrior Mar 29, 11:00

$100 vs. $40 leaves a large gap, even a month out. MJ *should* be a gigantic worldwide hit, but something is sour in the trailer. jonjon Mar 29, 20:57

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