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Macro view on Box Office data thru the rest of the year vs. value of HSX moviestock prices
I did a quick comparison of the total box office left thru the rest of they year using boxofficemojo.com top 12 total grosses (from 2009) for the next 12 weekends left for the year. Total came up to $1.642 billion. Then I took the value of all stock listed on HSX schedule (priced over H$10) for the same period and came up with the value $2.4 billion. Assuming that HSX player are pricing these for the opening weekend and then for only 4 weeks of b.o., I took 15% discount to that value and came up to just over $2 billion in value. Assuming that remaining 2010 releases will earn as much as what remaining 2009 releases did in total it appears that HSX listed stocks are about 20% overpriced to what they will eventually cash out at....
What does everyone think about such analysis? Comments, disproving arguments are welcomed...
Macro view on Box Office data thru the rest of the year vs. value of HSX moviestock prices Oct 04, 10:15
Are you taking into account that for some December releases, hsx prices reflect some early January receipts? {nm} Oct 04, 14:02
yes, i did... {nm} Oct 05, 11:11
that's a very interesting analysis ! Oct 04, 14:57
So you're the reason my port is in the red. {nm} Oct 04, 15:21
That's assuming that this year's trend will match last year's results... Oct 04, 16:03
