HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
I'm not a fan of such macro analysis as the variance in commercial appeal of opening movies from one year to another can be significant.
For example, this past summer was very poor. There were far more duds than hits. Next summer though is absolutely loaded with potential. It would not make sense to compare this summers numbers as some sort of guidline as to what next summer is capable of because to the vast differences in built-in audience potential.
That being said, I do agree with the basic premise that the next three months as a whole are overpriced. Based on current prices I expect far more shorts than longs opening weekend. It seems that this has more to do with the market now than anything. Back in the old days stocks would usually grow slowly until a week or two before opening, then fluctuate with tracking, buzz etc. Now it seems stocks hit a plateau 3 months or more before opening, then slowly drop until a week or two before opening. That's been my perception anyway.
Macro view on Box Office data thru the rest of the year vs. value of HSX moviestock prices Oct 04, 10:15
I'm not a fan of such macro analysis as the variance in commercial appeal of opening movies from one year to another can be significant. Oct 04, 10:28
Are you taking into account that for some December releases, hsx prices reflect some early January receipts? {nm} Oct 04, 14:02
yes, i did... {nm} Oct 05, 11:11
that's a very interesting analysis ! Oct 04, 14:57
So you're the reason my port is in the red. {nm} Oct 04, 15:21
That's assuming that this year's trend will match last year's results... Oct 04, 16:03
