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That's assuming that this year's trend will match last year's results...

Posted by: Rocket123 on Oct 04, 16:03 in response to Oleg Max's post Macro view on Box Office data thru the rest of the year...

Last year, there was a recession and people were watching their spending more closely than I believe this year.  Even I will be considering taking a movie in over Christmas, if nothing else than for a break from reality during that timeframe.  I feel that if one is to make such comparisons, they need to also factor in the state of the economy that drove the decisions leading to the trend.  I would be curious what the numbers would reflect if the AVG for the last 5 years was the trend used to compare.  If then, there is a significant overprice of stock, I would tend to agree with your analysis.  Otherwise, I do not feel this is sufficient evidence to support a PRIMA FACIE case.

2cents.





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