SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: The Hobbit set to rule them all.

After having its rights held up for decades in litigation and then bankruptcy, the feature adaptation of J.R.R Tolkien’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [HOBIT] finally hits the big screen; and not just in plain 24fps 2D, but also in 3D, IMAX, and not to mention, in the HFR of 48fps for the first time ever.  Nearly a decade after completely The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Oscar-winning Peter Jackson [PJACK] returns to direct the prequel story The Hobbit, which itself has been split into a new trilogy. The first film brings back many of the familiar characters from LOTR including those played by Ian McKellen [IMCKE], Cate Blanchett [CBLAN], Elijah Wood [EWOOD] and Andy Serkis [ASERK].  Middle-Earth newcomer Martin Freeman [MFREE] stars as young Bilbo Baggins, while Richard Armitage [RARMI] joins as the leader of the 12 dwarves.

2003’s The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King opened on a Wednesday and earned $72.6 million over its first weekend.  2007’s I Am Legend holds the weekend record for December at $77.2 million, while 2009’s Avatar is second at $77.0 million. The Hobbit should have no problem setting a new record based on ticket price inflation alone. The question is how big will be the victory margin? Reviews for the PG-13 rated film have not been as great as the original trilogy, with many critics complaining about the artifice of the HFR version. However, that’s not likely to matter to the Tolkien fanbase. Warner Bros.’ marketing has made sure The Hobbit doesn’t lack for awareness and interest, but will casual moviegoers be too busy with holiday festivities to spend 3 hours at the multiplex?  Advance ticket sales are better than Avatar, but sellouts are nowhere near the level of other fantasy series that debut over $100 million. Opening in 4045 theaters, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey could start off with $96 million.

Despite a slow start over Thanksgiving, Rise of the Guardians [GURDN] has held steady. With little competition for families with young children, the animated film should remain in second place with $6 million.

Skyfall is still flying high heading in its sixth weekend. 007 looks to stay in the top three with another $5.5 million to its franchise record sum.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): HOBIT, PJACK, IMCKE, CBLAN, EWOOD, ASERK, MFREE, RARMI, GURDN

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 13, 2012 @ 04:26 PM 6142 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



The Force (TFORC) 150000 0.65 (+0.03)          The Watchers (WATCS) 20000 35.84 (-0.04)          Evil Does Not Exist (EDNTE) 150000 0.79 (+0.05)          The Watchers (WATCS) 20000 35.84 (-0.04)          The Comeback Trail (CMBKT) 150000 0.01 (-0.02)          Battlestar Galactica (BGALA) 100000 8.75 (-0.08)          Battlestar Galactica (BGALA) 150000 8.75 (-0.08)          Ezra (INAPB) 77777 7.21 (+0.08)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 150000 28.65 (+1.28)          Scarlett Johansson (SJOHA) 2500 105.71 (-0.03)          Inside Out 2 - Opening Weekend (INOU2.OW) 100000 98.53 (-1.47)          Inside Out 2 H$100 Put (INOU2.PU) 25000 2.41 (+0.41)          Inside Out 2 H$100 Call (INOU2.CA) 25000 2.02 (+0.02)          Barney (BRNEY) 50000 12.16 (-0.04)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 40000 24.46 (+1.76)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 24.46 (+1.76)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 24.46 (+1.76)          Passion of the Christ 2: The Res (RESUR) 250 31.99 (-0.09)          Ezra (INAPB) 150000 7.21 (+0.08)          Ezra (INAPB) 150000 7.21 (+0.08)          Bambi (BAMBI) 150000 34.42 (-0.10)          The Chain (CHAIN) 250 11.40 (0.00)          The Chain (CHAIN) 250 11.40 (0.00)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die - Opening (BADB4.OW) 10000 54.78 (-0.05)          Losing Clementine (LCLEM) 150000 0.04 (+0.02)          Gears of War (GEARS) 150000 0.03 (+0.01)          Inside Out 2 H$100 Put (INOU2.PU) 25000 2.41 (+0.41)          Inside Out 2 H$100 Call (INOU2.CA) 25000 2.02 (+0.02)          Inside Out 2 - Opening Weekend (INOU2.OW) 100000 98.53 (-1.47)          King of the Jungle (KOTJN) 150000 0.04 (+0.02)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 7500 88.13 (-0.94)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 10000 88.13 (-0.94)          Balestra (BALES) 150000 0.04 (+0.01)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 150000 7.91 (-0.04)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 150000 7.91 (-0.04)          The Movie Teller (MVTEL) 150000 0.03 (+0.02)          The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 20000 20.04 (+0.03)          Jamojaya (JAMOJ) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Bagman (BAGMA) 150000 7.28 (-0.06)          Thomas Haden Church (THCHU) 2500 88.08 (-0.51)          Zorro 2.0 (ZOROR) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Cus and Mike (CUSMK) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 150000 260.36 (-1.59)          College Republicans (COREP) 150000 0.02 (0.00)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 150000 260.36 (-1.59)          Anora (ANORA) 150000 7.34 (-0.08)          Anora (ANORA) 150000 7.34 (-0.08)          Bag Man (BAGMN) 150000 1.51 (+0.01)          Blossoms (BLOSM) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Fuze (FUZE) 150000 17.89 (+1.15)