SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Cowboys & Aliens and The Smurfs too!

Three new films open this weekend led by the sci-fi/western Cowboys & Aliens [CBALN]. James Bond [DCRAI] and Indiana Jones [HFORD] team up with Iron Man director [JFAVR] to help sell a genre mash-up that has produced only lackluster efforts like Wild Wild West and Jonah Hex. Still, UFOs in the Old West presents an intriguing concept that should appeal to the older male demographic.  Raiding 3750 theaters, Cowboys & Aliens could abduct $42 million.

Last weekend, Captain America: The First Avenger [CAPAM] performed as well as its Marvel 2011 cohort Thor. The Norse God declined 47% in its second weekend, so expect the Super Soldier to fare worse in a more competitive environment. A 50% drop-off would put Captain America around $32 million.

The Smurfs [SMURF] is the latest cartoon to get the mix live-action/CGI treatment. Papa Smurf, Smurfette and the rest of the animated gang are chased by Hank Azaria’s [HAZAR] Gargamel to our world  and into the life of New Yorker Neil Patrick Harris [NPHAR].  Sony hopes the PG-rated film would entice nostalgic parents to bring their kids. While every one of these family films aspires to be the next Alvin and the Chipmunks, most perform more on the level of the recent Yogi Bear. Smurfing into 3395 theaters, The Smurfs could smurf $22 million.

After its record-setting opening, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 [HPOT8] also had an unprecedented decline. The final film in the franchise looks to zap another $20 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE], Julianne Moore [JMOOR], Ryan Gosling [RGOSL] and Emma Stone [ESTON] star in the PG-13 rated comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love [CSLOV]. Warner Bros.’ marketing campaign has been unsure about whether to push the film as a broad romantic comedy or as an adult relationship comedy, thus sending mixed signals to moviegoers. The subject matter of divorce will probably skew its audience to older couples. Early reviews are good which should help Crazy, Stupid, Love earn $17 million from 3020 locations.

Friends with Benefits [FWBFT] grossed less than expected in its debut. The young dating crowd should help the romantic comedy holdover to $10 million in its second weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): CBALN, DCRAI, HFORD, JFAVR, CAPAM, SMURF, HAZAR, NPHAR, HPOT8, SCARE, JMOOR, RGOSL, ESTON, CSLOV, FWBFT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 28, 2011 @ 03:23 PM 6424 views

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#BoxOffice Weekend Actuals: 1. #OldMovie $16.85M 2. #SnakeEyes $13.37M https://t.co/wipFT7dTOw       First Look at The Power of the Dog starring Benedict Cumberbatch https://t.co/nk8mj3iWOI       First trailer for Parallel Mothers from Pedro Almodovar https://t.co/xPjxiAHmXG       Trailer for The Loud House Movie, on Netflix August 20th https://t.co/ykOVfCVfPJ       Box Score: #OldMovie conquers #SnakeEyes at the weekend box office https://t.co/Zyv8BIQXLo       Bradley Whitford joins Rosaline       New trailer for White as Snow starring Isabelle Huppert https://t.co/tfsjlQGIXE       #OldMovie $1.5M in Thursday previews https://t.co/dOvR9tr7YA       #SnakeEyes: G.I. Joe Origins $1.4M in Thursday Previews https://t.co/vkc4ffPiG2       International teaser for Official Competition starring Penelope Cruz and Antonio Banderas https://t.co/HQBJvtKur2      
Pinocchio - Disney (PNOCC) 1 20.05 (-0.05)         Mega Man (MGAMN) 1 13.82 (-0.05)         The Tiger's Apprentice (TGRAP) 1 32.04 (0.00)         The Tiger's Apprentice (TGRAP) 1 32.04 (0.00)         Untitled David O. Russell aka Am (AMSTR) 50000 36.12 (-0.02)         Big Trouble in Little China (BTILC) 1 9.64 (0.00)         Avatar 2 (AVAT2) 1400 359.53 (-0.56)         King Richard (KRICH) 1 25.87 (-0.07)         Avatar 2 (AVAT2) 100 359.53 (-0.56)         Dark Army (DARKA) 1 25.10 (-0.07)         Alice, Darling (ALICD) 15000 9.33 (-0.67)         Static Shock (STATC) 1 33.94 (-0.02)         Silent Night (SLENT) 1 11.13 (-0.01)         Hercules (HRCUL) 400 72.59 (+0.16)         The Fixer (FIXER) 1 12.95 (0.00)         Nightmare Alley (NMALY) 1 36.05 (0.00)         Cupid (CUPID) 1 12.70 (+0.01)         Sing 2 (SING2) 1 160.21 (+0.02)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 400 5.73 (+0.73)         The Kingsman 3 (KTSS4) 1 31.82 (+0.03)         Jacob Marley (MRLEY) 1 29.42 (+0.05)         Dog (DOG) 1 24.98 (+0.07)         Baby Driver 2 (BDRV2) 1 19.50 (+0.03)         Language Lessons (LNGLS) 150000 0.98 (-0.02)         Alice, Darling (ALICD) 20000 9.33 (-0.67)         The Marvels aka Captain Marvel 2 (CMAR2) 30000 205.28 (+0.58)         10-31 (1031) 1 9.09 (0.00)         The Six Billion Dollar Man (6MILL) 1 21.02 (0.00)         Bermuda Triangle (BTRIA) 1 11.82 (+0.01)         Ticket to Paradise (TCKTP) 1 29.88 (0.00)         Black Five (BLAC5) 1 14.86 (-0.03)         RoboCop Returns (ROBO2) 1 7.86 (-0.01)         Planet of the Apes 4 (APES4) 1 51.59 (-0.13)         Furiosa (MMAX5) 25000 85.33 (-0.20)         Salem's Lot (SALOT) 50000 29.37 (-0.22)         Fantastic Beasts 3 (FBST3) 50000 79.79 (-0.34)         Pokemon: Detective Pikachu 2 (PIKA2) 50000 44.95 (-0.16)         The Last Duel (LDUEL) 50000 69.21 (-0.16)         Minions: The Rise of Gru (MNIO2) 10000 186.74 (-0.03)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 50000 5.73 (+0.73)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 50000 5.73 (+0.73)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 50000 5.73 (+0.73)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 50000 5.73 (+0.73)         Death on the Nile (DNILE) 25000 32.79 (-0.08)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 50000 5.73 (+0.73)         Finch aka Bios (BIOS) 100000 8.99 (-0.07)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 50000 5.73 (+0.73)         Baby Driver 2 (BDRV2) 149996 19.50 (+0.03)         Easter Sunday (EASUN) 149996 23.05 (+0.09)         Artemis (ARTEM) 50000 13.58 (+0.43)