In 7 of the categories, there are 12 possibilities. 5 will cash out at $12.00 and 7 will cash out at 0.
If you got them all correct from the start, bough all 12 at 5 you paid 60 to get in. You would get your 60 back from the 5 correct ones. But you would also make 35 from shorting the losers and delist at zero. That is a potential of 35 per category, multiplied by 20K shares or about H$.7M per category, or H$4,9M hitting them all.
Best picture gets funny because you can have lots of good ones lined up, but not all of them get the nomination. But there is H$ to be made by longing winners and shorting those that you think have no shot. If you only hold 10 long at the end, there are 8 losers that delist at zero, if you have them short.
There is intermediary money to be made as a "loser" suddenly looks good by winning a SAG, a GG or the DGA. You have to pay attention, even have your computer open during the award shows.
Are there sure things? A couple of years ago, I felt that FWHIT and HMIRR had locked up the Oscar (R) in September, and I was right. Last year it was OSPEN (but I was Soooooo wrong about VDAVI) But once in a while, there is a shocker. That is why this is fun. So take it that way. If you have enough to invest, you will be profitable. Then you sink your profits into the Award options and enjoy the show.