HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Not yet...

Posted by: MattW (a.k.a del_RGV_MattW) on Nov 19, 11:28 in response to Flash's post So did you short it? *smiles*

Still "only" priced for a 170m opening, and it'll keep going up at least until week of release if not all the way up until Saturday Dec 19th sometime when that day's info starts coming in.  Like I said above, thurs and friday will be huge, more than enough to justify a summertime 200+ opening, but saturday and sunday's numbers will bring it back down to earth.

Actually I wouldn't be surprised if the sunday guesses are way too high leading to a weekend estimate above $200m.  Weekend actuals are what matter though.

A small bet.... MattW Nov 17, 19:12

oh my vader {nm} DiNar0 Nov 17, 19:38

Well...you're on record now, at least. :-) {nm} Flash Nov 18, 08:39

Just wondering what has brought you to this conclusion? {nm} blaze223 Nov 18, 11:53

Inside MattW Nov 18, 19:56

I'm really excited, not only for the film, but because over half my net worth is tied up in STAR7. Exogen Nov 18, 15:41

Rest easy, will delist at 700+ {nm} skunkrunner Nov 18, 18:31

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! RamsFan2004 Nov 18, 18:23

So did you short it? *smiles* {nm} Flash Nov 19, 08:27

Not yet... MattW Nov 19, 11:28

Both Jurassic World and Avengers were underestimated (by 4 and 7 mil) {nm} JDolphin Nov 19, 18:01

and for the purpose of HSX on Saturday evening - the Sunday estimate is what matters {nm} JDolphin Nov 19, 18:11

For the adjust yeah, for my bet I'm going by actuals. {nm} MattW Nov 19, 18:33

Well, I've enjoyed competing with you, and I will miss it. ;) {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Nov 19, 13:49

We'll be competing for a while to come don't you worry XD {nm} MattW Nov 19, 14:22

I agree it'll probably under 200 million OW. I don't think it'll have staying power earn about $480 million overall. Baron_Darcon Nov 19, 15:20

And you base this on... ? {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Nov 19, 17:00

Just a gut feeling.. I've usually had a good sense of box office. Baron_Darcon Nov 20, 01:54

You need to look at the history of Christmas to New Years box office if you think STaR7 is going to have that poor of a delist {nm} JDolphin Nov 19, 18:15

I dunno MattW - $50M already in presales. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Nov 19, 16:59

If I'm wrong you can rub it in my face as much as you want.... MattW Nov 19, 18:36

I find your lack of faith disturbing. :) {nm} Iger Nov 19, 17:21

that Friday night on the boards is gonna be fun!...there will be blood =P {nm} tealfan Nov 19, 17:25

Definitely will be, BOT forums and a few subreddits will be too. Gonna be a lot of fun {nm} MattW Nov 19, 18:33





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $39 (MARI2.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Driver's Ed (DRVED) 150000 4.72 (-2.64)          Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard And (HMHAS.OW) 4000 10.76 (-0.45)          Possession (PSESN) 10000 31.89 (-0.92)          Miami Vice '85 (MIVIC) 16000 95.97 (-3.53)          Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (EBNZR) 149001 78.62 (-0.59)          Ono Ghost Market (ONOGM) 150000 72.11 (+2.11)          The Sheep Detectives (3BAGF) 8000 42.96 (-0.79)          Hokum (HOKUM) 10000 13.32 (-0.34)          The Thing That Hurts (TTTHU) 149994 1.57 (+0.01)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 361.13 (-0.24)          Moana (MOAN1) 150000 226.06 (-1.56)          Crazy Rich Asians 2: China Rich (CRAS2) 150000 18.27 (-0.08)          Juliette Lewis (JLEWI) 25000 15.98 (-0.50)          Untitled Fourth Film directed by (UJPE4) 150000 51.91 (-0.14)          Timothy Olyphant (TOLYP) 25000 36.60 (-0.32)          Her Private Hell (HERPH) 150000 5.93 (-0.02)          Cookie Queens (COKIQ) 42000 1.83 (-0.06)          Juliette Lewis (JLEWI) 25000 15.98 (-0.50)          Michael 2 (MJAC2) 75000 153.74 (+6.78)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 51000 79.03 (-2.37)          By Design (BYDSG) 150000 0.05 (+0.01)          The Goonies 2 (GONI2) 5423 56.95 (-0.30)          Wind River: The Next Chapter (WNRV2) 500 2.45 (-0.02)          Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 550 23.20 (-0.74)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $39 (MARI2.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 39 79.03 (-2.37)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 93 262.12 (-0.72)          The Shrinking of Treehorn (TSOTH) 3000 0.66 (-0.01)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 5 11.59 (+0.04)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 3 233.76 (+0.55)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 155 14.81 (-0.05)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 4 4.59 (+0.01)          Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) 5 29.76 (+0.13)          Harmonia (HARMO) 150000 2.82 (+0.01)          Urban Legend (URBN3) 10 2.33 (+0.02)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 4 17.86 (+0.06)          Without Blood (WOBLD) 500 2.56 (-0.01)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 150000 262.12 (-0.72)          Wonder Woman (WOND3) 5 51.66 (-0.21)          Ono Ghost Market (ONOGM) 150000 72.11 (+2.11)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 16 67.72 (-1.08)          Vegas: A Love Story (VALVS) 5 9.02 (-0.03)          Voltron (VOLTN) 65 22.82 (-0.01)          John Wick Prequel (WICK0) 5 33.60 (-0.16)          What Happens At Night (WHANT) 3 42.78 (-0.06)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 47 79.03 (-2.37)          Watch Dogs (WTDOG) 4 9.40 (+0.02)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 4 163.91 (-0.44)          Scarface (SCARF) 149999 0.11 (+0.05)