HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Not yet...

Posted by: MattW (a.k.a del_RGV_MattW) on Nov 19, 11:28 in response to Flash's post So did you short it? *smiles*

Still "only" priced for a 170m opening, and it'll keep going up at least until week of release if not all the way up until Saturday Dec 19th sometime when that day's info starts coming in.  Like I said above, thurs and friday will be huge, more than enough to justify a summertime 200+ opening, but saturday and sunday's numbers will bring it back down to earth.

Actually I wouldn't be surprised if the sunday guesses are way too high leading to a weekend estimate above $200m.  Weekend actuals are what matter though.

A small bet.... MattW Nov 17, 19:12

oh my vader {nm} DiNar0 Nov 17, 19:38

Well...you're on record now, at least. :-) {nm} Flash Nov 18, 08:39

Just wondering what has brought you to this conclusion? {nm} blaze223 Nov 18, 11:53

Inside MattW Nov 18, 19:56

I'm really excited, not only for the film, but because over half my net worth is tied up in STAR7. Exogen Nov 18, 15:41

Rest easy, will delist at 700+ {nm} skunkrunner Nov 18, 18:31

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! RamsFan2004 Nov 18, 18:23

So did you short it? *smiles* {nm} Flash Nov 19, 08:27

Not yet... MattW Nov 19, 11:28

Both Jurassic World and Avengers were underestimated (by 4 and 7 mil) {nm} JDolphin Nov 19, 18:01

and for the purpose of HSX on Saturday evening - the Sunday estimate is what matters {nm} JDolphin Nov 19, 18:11

For the adjust yeah, for my bet I'm going by actuals. {nm} MattW Nov 19, 18:33

Well, I've enjoyed competing with you, and I will miss it. ;) {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Nov 19, 13:49

We'll be competing for a while to come don't you worry XD {nm} MattW Nov 19, 14:22

I agree it'll probably under 200 million OW. I don't think it'll have staying power earn about $480 million overall. Baron_Darcon Nov 19, 15:20

And you base this on... ? {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Nov 19, 17:00

Just a gut feeling.. I've usually had a good sense of box office. Baron_Darcon Nov 20, 01:54

You need to look at the history of Christmas to New Years box office if you think STaR7 is going to have that poor of a delist {nm} JDolphin Nov 19, 18:15

I dunno MattW - $50M already in presales. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Nov 19, 16:59

If I'm wrong you can rub it in my face as much as you want.... MattW Nov 19, 18:36

I find your lack of faith disturbing. :) {nm} Iger Nov 19, 17:21

that Friday night on the boards is gonna be fun!...there will be blood =P {nm} tealfan Nov 19, 17:25

Definitely will be, BOT forums and a few subreddits will be too. Gonna be a lot of fun {nm} MattW Nov 19, 18:33





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Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 150000 47.63 (+2.04)          The Ploughmen (PLOUM) 499 0.10 (0.00)          Mamma Mia 3 (MAMI3) 10000 24.26 (-0.04)          Mamma Mia 3 (MAMI3) 10000 24.26 (-0.04)          Goblin (GBLIN) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Flight of the Navigator (FNAVG) 101 0.08 (0.00)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 10000 32.34 (+0.04)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 10000 32.34 (+0.04)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 150000 47.63 (+2.04)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 150000 25.23 (+0.81)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 150000 47.63 (+2.04)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 150000 61.16 (+2.90)          A Manual for Cleaning Women (AMFCW) 1101 0.09 (0.00)          Backrooms $175M Blockbuster Warr (BACRM.BW) 25000 6.10 (+1.10)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 137.53 (-0.91)          A Manual for Cleaning Women (AMFCW) 299 0.09 (0.00)          Goblin (GBLIN) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Jason Statham Stole My Bike (JSSMB) 15000 26.04 (+0.05)          Goblin (GBLIN) 50000 20.00 (0.00)          Jason Statham Stole My Bike (JSSMB) 15000 26.04 (+0.05)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 25001 61.16 (+2.90)          Bad Blood (BDBLD) 101 0.15 (+0.02)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 15.80 (+0.28)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 8.68 (+0.22)          Goblin (GBLIN) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 100 431.58 (-0.99)          Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 10000 12.64 (+0.02)          Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 10000 12.64 (+0.02)          Chippendales (IMCHP) 2495 0.02 (0.00)          The Debut aka Chloe aka No One C (CHLO) 20783 4.88 (+0.58)          Backrooms $175M Blockbuster Warr (BACRM.BW) 25000 6.10 (+1.10)          Mike Myers (MMYER) 25000 47.58 (-0.17)          Backrooms $175M Blockbuster Warr (BACRM.BW) 25000 6.10 (+1.10)          The Collaboration (COLAB) 299 0.06 (0.00)          Sniff (SNIFF) 598 0.04 (-0.02)          Harold & Kumar 4 (HAKU4) 10000 13.68 (0.00)          Harold & Kumar 4 (HAKU4) 10000 13.68 (0.00)          The Man Who Saved Paris (TMWSP) 299 0.04 (-0.01)          The Debut aka Chloe aka No One C (CHLO) 150000 4.88 (+0.58)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 150000 7.83 (-0.14)          Untitled A24 Horror Film aka Unt (UASTE) 20000 25.23 (+0.81)          Meet the Barbarians (MTBAR) 998 0.03 (0.00)          The Debut aka Chloe aka No One C (CHLO) 150000 4.88 (+0.58)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 101130 105.44 (+0.89)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 150000 61.16 (+2.90)          Whalefall (WHALF) 50000 39.20 (+0.10)          McCarthy (MCRTY) 299 0.04 (0.00)          Fall 2: Deadpoint (FALL2) 150000 7.69 (+0.12)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 150000 47.63 (+2.04)          Her Private Hell (HERPH) 150000 7.13 (-0.03)