HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Just posting a guess

Posted by: MattW on Dec 17, 00:28 in response to MattW's post Strong presale numbers came out right before the .OW...

Thu 45
Fri   55
Sat  60
Sun 50
Mon 26

Sat bump over true friday likely in the 8-10% range, Sunday drop high teens 16-19%, Monday drop from there 47-49%.
Mon-Thurs combined approx double Sunday, so if sunday is 50 should be about 100m.

             
  Th Fri Sat Sun Mon M-Th
Hob1 (14th) 13 24.13 27.74 (+14.9) 19.75 (-28.8) 7.74 (-60.8) 1.444xSun
Ep8 (15th) 45 59.68 63.99 (+7.2) 51.33 (-19.8) 21.56 (-58.0) 1.492xSun
R1 (16th) 29 42.09 46.31 (+10.0) 37.68 (-18.6) 17.60 (-53.3) 1.776xSun
TRON (17th) 3.6 13.91 15.04 (+8.1) 11.48 (-23.6) 6.08 (-47.1) 2.107xSun
TFA (18th) 57 62.12 68.29 (+9.9) 60.55 (-11.3) 40.11 (-33.8) 2.36x Sun
Hob3 (19th) 9.96 16.56 21.4 (+29.2) 16.76 (-21.7) 9.01 (-46.3) 2.265xSun
Ep9 (20th) 40 49.62 47.47 (-4.3) 40.30 (-15.1) 29.39 (-27.1) 2.789xSun

TFA is obviously an exception, but the others have a pretty solid relationship with how close they release to christmas. I'm gonna guess NWH will fit reasonably well.

(SPID8.OW) Jacked Up From 150.00 To 170.00 Just For The Fun Of It. {nm} Captain Obvious Nov 29, 20:37

Any reason why it's at 180 when the numbers say 145 on opening weekend? {nm} 183Phi Dec 01, 09:37

What numbers? {nm} Antibody Dec 01, 10:21

'HIGH AND LOW TRADING PRICES' Still Show 150.00. Not Seeing 145.00 Anywhere. Jacked Up From 170.00 To 180.00 Today Just For The Fun Of It. Captain Obvious Dec 01, 17:48

Obviously if you think it is overpriced then short it. Or it may be underpriced. This is a large opinion survey. {nm} StarBondFund Dec 02, 09:06

Clarification on my earlier message 183Phi Dec 02, 09:34

There are no longer any adjust multiplier, so no, HSX does not expect $147M on opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 02, 10:08

Can you explain the "no adjust multiplier" comment? {nm} 183Phi Dec 06, 10:54

How did you calculate 147 from 382? I assume you use a multiplier. {nm} Antibody Dec 06, 14:41

Correct, I used a multiplier from what was used the past. {nm} 183Phi Dec 08, 09:49

So you know MovieStocks no longer adjust based on its opening weekend. It's priced strictly for 4 weekends. {nm} Antibody Dec 08, 10:39

Thank you for letting me know. {nm} 183Phi Dec 10, 09:13

Are you so sure about the relation OW/stock price? fwerner Dec 06, 13:09

Strong presale numbers came out right before the .OW started trading so they adjusted it up a bit. MattW Dec 02, 15:39

** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** ad48 Dec 06, 14:20

Don't post a call to action on a stock. {nm} Antibody Dec 06, 14:45

Just posting a guess MattW Dec 17, 00:28

Monday-Thursday MattW Dec 20, 16:14

Good call on 38 for Monday. Thats spot on to what it is. Good analysis. {nm} ad48 Dec 20, 22:36

Thanks, I ended up kinda right and kinda wrong. Trying to extrapolate from comps with different holiday schedules was interesting. MattW Dec 29, 23:59





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