HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Monday-Thursday

Posted by: MattW on Dec 20, 16:14 in response to MattW's post Just posting a guess

Referencing the table I put above, a low guess for Mon-Th is probably 2x Sunday, Ep9 had eve and day during the first M-Th so very likely less than 2.7x Sunday.
Mid point between R1 and Ep9 is 2.3x which would be about 145-150m.
Mon- 38
Tues- 37
Wed- 35
Thur- 37
=147

Monday dropping to 38 would be -40% which still roughly fits the pattern I think. Could be as low as 35 but I doubt it does better than that.

I was wrong about Sunday tho, a little closer to TFA than the others, -13.1% rather than -15-20%, and given that seems wise to revise monday drop to 40 range.

(SPID8.OW) Jacked Up From 150.00 To 170.00 Just For The Fun Of It. {nm} Captain Obvious Nov 29, 20:37

Any reason why it's at 180 when the numbers say 145 on opening weekend? {nm} 183Phi Dec 01, 09:37

What numbers? {nm} Antibody Dec 01, 10:21

'HIGH AND LOW TRADING PRICES' Still Show 150.00. Not Seeing 145.00 Anywhere. Jacked Up From 170.00 To 180.00 Today Just For The Fun Of It. Captain Obvious Dec 01, 17:48

Obviously if you think it is overpriced then short it. Or it may be underpriced. This is a large opinion survey. {nm} StarBondFund Dec 02, 09:06

Clarification on my earlier message 183Phi Dec 02, 09:34

There are no longer any adjust multiplier, so no, HSX does not expect $147M on opening weekend. {nm} Antibody Dec 02, 10:08

Can you explain the "no adjust multiplier" comment? {nm} 183Phi Dec 06, 10:54

How did you calculate 147 from 382? I assume you use a multiplier. {nm} Antibody Dec 06, 14:41

Correct, I used a multiplier from what was used the past. {nm} 183Phi Dec 08, 09:49

So you know MovieStocks no longer adjust based on its opening weekend. It's priced strictly for 4 weekends. {nm} Antibody Dec 08, 10:39

Thank you for letting me know. {nm} 183Phi Dec 10, 09:13

Are you so sure about the relation OW/stock price? fwerner Dec 06, 13:09

Strong presale numbers came out right before the .OW started trading so they adjusted it up a bit. MattW Dec 02, 15:39

** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** ad48 Dec 06, 14:20

Don't post a call to action on a stock. {nm} Antibody Dec 06, 14:45

Just posting a guess MattW Dec 17, 00:28

Monday-Thursday MattW Dec 20, 16:14

Good call on 38 for Monday. Thats spot on to what it is. Good analysis. {nm} ad48 Dec 20, 22:36

Thanks, I ended up kinda right and kinda wrong. Trying to extrapolate from comps with different holiday schedules was interesting. MattW Dec 29, 23:59





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Lakeith Stanfield (LSTAN) 24990 11.00 (-0.09)          Jaeden Martell (JALIE) 25000 54.63 (-0.16)          Supergirl - Opening Weekend (SUPGR.OW) 7500 58.25 (-0.03)          Corporate Retreat (CRPRT) 150000 2.16 (-0.05)          Wilford Nappy Pulawa biopic (NAPPY) 19800 48.48 (+0.92)          Monopoly (MONOP) 80217 12.01 (-0.09)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 1000 5.89 (-0.17)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 1000 0.75 (0.00)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 20000 17.36 (+1.24)          Please (PLESE) 20000 19.55 (-0.80)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 110000 126.49 (-1.41)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 25000 9.47 (-0.92)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 1500 66.86 (+0.05)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 2476 126.49 (-1.41)          Please (PLESE) 290 19.55 (-0.80)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 118648 304.20 (-0.69)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 25000 53.41 (+0.33)          Jack of Spades (JACSP) 150000 6.93 (+0.26)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 25000 53.41 (+0.33)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 126.49 (-1.41)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.36 (+1.24)          Above The Below (ABELW) 150000 7.52 (+0.62)          Thumb (THUM) 150000 5.27 (+0.48)          Buddy (BUDDY) 149999 5.48 (+0.03)          Fleur (FLEUR) 150000 7.42 (+0.29)          Control (COTRL) 150000 5.99 (+0.47)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 150000 19.94 (+0.14)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 150000 12.81 (-0.44)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 150000 12.81 (-0.44)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 9.47 (-0.92)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 126.49 (-1.41)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 9.47 (-0.92)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 150000 4.94 (+0.47)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.36 (+1.24)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.36 (+1.24)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 149999 4.94 (+0.47)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 75000 5.02 (+0.87)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 5.56 (+0.56)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 12.66 (+1.04)          Jane (JANE1) 75000 12.66 (+1.04)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 75000 16.88 (+1.41)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 16.88 (+1.41)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 16.88 (+1.41)          Driver's Ed (DRVED) 150000 1.33 (-0.02)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 149999 17.36 (+1.24)          Free Agents (FREAG) 150000 0.01 (0.00)          Thumb (THUM) 149999 5.27 (+0.48)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 5.56 (+0.56)          Affection (AFECT) 150000 0.13 (-0.01)          Pedro Pascal (PPASC) 25000 125.82 (-0.33)