Movies

my thoughts on TGRLW.... lobogotti Jun 06, 12:25

While I haven't played with the numbers to target an OW adjust, I agree with the analysis. XMas openers are more about legs than OW. {nm} Paul2k Jun 06, 12:31

you factor in that 30-40% drop for XMas Eve vs. the previous night and that film has to be a HUGE hit to meet its current price. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 12:35

There's also likely to be some audience confusion. I've seen The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo DVD prominently displayed BionicMoron Jun 06, 12:35

i agree. been watching this one closely for months and just been amazed at the levels it's trading. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 12:36

Agree. (I've lost a LOT of bucks on this one, playing my head instead of the market.) {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:47

sometimes it's hard to know when it's reached it's cap. i've gotten lucky lately on narrowing and making profit on the way up and back lobogotti Jun 06, 13:01

by the way, was this the one we agreed upon? {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 12:42

I was thinking of a Summer opener, but we do agree on this one too. {nm} BionicMoron Jun 06, 12:52

share with the class. though i'm sure we're holding the same. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 12:55

The name is a riff on what's probably considered a politically incorrect game kids (used to) play. BionicMoron Jun 06, 13:04

I know my wife and I like to play Bad Teacher, but riddles aren't my game sir. I need more. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:07

*Tips ten gallon hat and beams aboard mother ship* {nm} stevie1der328 Jun 06, 13:20

doh! I'm a SuperSonicMoron. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:34

TGRLW should be able to do Hannibal's 3day $58M over 5 days; $75M would just be DVINC over 5 days. {nm} Antibody Jun 06, 12:45

I think Hannibal is on the high side, but I suppose it's possible. It had SOTL anticipation building for years. Those are two good lobogotti Jun 06, 12:54

You conveniently left out the Lord of the Rings movies... Weds, Thurs, Friday and Sunday will be huge for this. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 13:01

i went back the past 7 years. you're seriously comparing this film to LOTR? {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:03

Dude, you have no idea what kind of buzz that trailer created over Memorial Day weekend. secretstalker Jun 06, 13:15

And this is from someone who had it short for a long long time and reversed it as soon as that red band trailer broke secretstalker Jun 06, 13:17

please do so. and when I come back correct don't be afraid to admit it. remember it needs to open like this (roughly) to meet the lobogotti Jun 06, 13:23

and even more from it's high of 166 {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:28

I already have it doing $35 million on Wednesday and Thursday 'cause none of the other movies open until Friday. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 13:28

Darkest Hour will move (or else it better) and I'm thinking the Jolie movie may be limited at this point. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 13:29

i will gladly admit if I'm wrong. like I said, these are my thoughts on the movies box office potential. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:31

17.5M opening day? rated R film, with little to-no star power? the book has only been out for 6 years? {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:44

Easy... go ahead bookmark this and we can revisit in December. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 14:07

fo sho playa, fo sho. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 14:10

The same could be said about SUPR8's initial trailer. :) {nm} Antibody Jun 06, 13:40

the same is said about it. even I bought into that hype to an extent, then realized the signs pointed much further south. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:42

If they haven't seen a movie in years how did they see the trailer? BionicMoron Jun 06, 13:43

was getting ready to start in on that. RedBands, though they do help nobody I know has seen it. nobody I know has any interest in the film lobogotti Jun 06, 13:45

Both based on literary trilogies, but wayyyyyyyy different genres there. {nm} BionicMoron Jun 06, 13:05

To elaborate: LOTR is a full 4 quadrant series. DragonTat is 2 quadrant, at most. {nm} BionicMoron Jun 06, 13:46

and the book was published in 1954. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:49

also, how huge is HUGE? Meet the Fockers was pretty big and even if it did those numbers it's considerably overpriced. {nm} lobogotti Jun 06, 13:10

Frankly, I think the teaser was mostly useless for those who have no idea what these books are or are about. Seems to have only excited the ShawnMR Jun 06, 13:48