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There are huge challenges in predicting 4 quadrant movies. You're not just asking "Is the target audience going to show up and see it?", but
"Are people who the movie isn't aimed at specifically, but would probably still enjoy it, going to show up?"
A big part of this is estimating whether the publicity hype is going to peak at the same time the movie opens, convincing people to go see it on opening weekend, or whether it will peak just a little bit too early, and have people decide to wait until later, or until they've heard whether it's good. ALCNW is an example of where the hype was timed perfectly. IRNM2 is one (I think) where the hype peaked a little too early.
It's hard enough during the week before opening, let alone doing it a month out.
DL: [AVNGR} tracking like a superhero: 4quad, 125+ possible Apr 12, 08:07
[AVNGR] {nm} Apr 12, 08:09
how is this not over 400mill?? {nm} Apr 12, 11:20
wouldn't $125m be considered a massive disappointment??? {nm} Apr 12, 08:43
is that just a "toldja" thing or does everyone play it that way with early predictions? {nm} Apr 12, 09:15
There are huge challenges in predicting 4 quadrant movies. You're not just asking "Is the target audience going to show up and see it?", but Apr 12, 09:47
These are the first trackings for AVNGR. The first tracking for HGAME had lows in the 75 range, highs close to 100. {nm} Apr 12, 09:27
