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Starting with the assumption that JB21 and JB23 are enjoying similar critical and popular acclaim, thus leading to similar BO performance,

Posted by: Paul2k on Nov 11, 15:19 in response to xiayun's post 2.77 opening IM, right on par with Casino Royale; CR...

do you think that the fact that JB21 opened the weekend before Thanksgiving and didn't face one of the November blockbusters (HPOT or TWIL), while JB23 opens 2 weekends before Thanksgiving and has to contend with TWIL5 in its second week means JB23 might not be able to reach the same multiplier?

I know the HPOT and TWIL series don't really have a crossover audience with something like James Bond, but looking at the past dozen years when one of those blockbuster movies has opened in November (7 instances), it appears that most of the movies that had opened the weekend before had some pretty poor holds in their 2nd weekend. Now granted, a lot of those movies were pretty crappy and expected to be OW frontloaded (2012 and Immortals for example), but is it possible that, if they didn't have to face TWLI or HPOT in their second weekends, they would have had better holds?

In addition, does anyone have any idea, done any analysis, on whether a movie is better off (in it's 4 week window) opening two weekends before Thanksgiving versus 1 weekend before Thanksgiving (as JB 21 did)? In a vacuum, is it better to have your third weekend be the long Thanksgiving weekend and your fourth weekend be the weak "post Thanksgiving weekend", or is it better to have Thanksgiving weekend be your second week, the doldrums of the next week be your third week?

JB23 is going to be a nice litmus test. JB21 didn't have to face a HPOT or TWIL, while JB22 had to contend with TWLI1- of course, JB21 was MUCH more well regarded and had better WOM than JB22, so that HAS to factor in. I dunno. I'm interested in seeing how JB23 plays out.

Official Adjust Antibody Nov 11, 10:30

JB23 100,000 long H$83.18 H$239.26 H$23.35 (10.81%) H$23,926,000.00 15,608,250.00 (187.65%) {nm} fourstars Nov 11, 11:00

Assuming you held for 1 yr, you got a dROI of 0.5% and made $42.7k/day . I held it for 3 days, and got a dROI of 6%, and made $1.22M/day. elchan Nov 11, 11:24

I currently have $574M in cash. {nm} fourstars Nov 11, 11:26

Cash don't make you money! Invest some of that haul! {nm} BSmurf Nov 11, 11:40

Can't find anything! {nm} fourstars Nov 11, 15:22

Almost $1.5B in cash. {nm} second gary Nov 11, 13:42

1.88 bill in cash {nm} RazorHawk Nov 11, 16:21

JB23 100,000 long H$79.43 H$239.26 H$23.35 (10.81%) H$23,926,000.00 15,982,744.00 (201.21%) - I win? {nm} TheMackenzie Nov 11, 11:42

JB23 100,000 long H$74.39 H$239.26 H$23.35 (10.81%) H$23,926,000.00 16,487,500.00 (221.65%) {nm} JohnTEQP Nov 11, 23:59

2.77 opening IM, right on par with Casino Royale; CR finished with 4.1 overall multiplier, Skyfall needs 3.39 for $300m xiayun Nov 11, 11:03

thx...and good you had time to stop by! {nm} tealfan Nov 11, 11:09

Quantum of Solace opened the same weekend to $67M and had a under 2.3 delist multiplier. {nm} fourstars Nov 11, 11:11

With much worse WOM {nm} xiayun Nov 11, 11:14

Wish I had read your analysis before I sold my shares. {nm} MiyazakiFan Nov 11, 11:27

Why? Casino Royal had a delist multiplier of 3.16 on a $41M opening weekend. JB23 opened to more than twice Casino Royal. {nm} fourstars Nov 11, 11:35

Dont feel bad.. If you need cash for that vampire flick coming next weekend, you did the right thing... gardavou Nov 11, 11:35

and that other movie with stars and wars and such {nm} thatpj Nov 11, 11:49

right now though we are not playing for overall multiplier but for a 4 week mult which for JB21 was 3.16 and 2.25 for JB22... {nm} Oleg Max Nov 11, 11:35

Starting with the assumption that JB21 and JB23 are enjoying similar critical and popular acclaim, thus leading to similar BO performance, Paul2k Nov 11, 15:19

One advantage to open this weekend is that it'll have the Veterans Day holiday help on Monday; don't be surprised to see a $10m+ Mon {nm} xiayun Nov 11, 23:31





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