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It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Jan 01, 15:04 in response to RogerMore's post Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many...

Following on from last night's movie prediction accuracy thread, here are the accuracy figures for 2011 and 2010. RogerMore Jan 01, 09:27

Time for RS to update its model. They are consistent losers. {nm} elchan Jan 01, 09:38

Can you believe they are a business? Makes me think I should start my own movie tracking company. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 09:54

i dont think they make much money off it. it supplements their main business (they are a theater chain) {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 12:35

Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many theatres should show the new releases :) {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 14:44

It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale Moviesnob Jan 01, 15:04

Yeah, I'm just being snarky. Thanks for the info. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 16:21

So here is the answer to JDolphin's question about how prediction sites performed with blockbusters: RogerMore Jan 01, 09:52

Wow - thanks a lot for all that work!! Happy New Year! {nm} JDolphin Jan 01, 13:20

How did I do overall at BOF for 2011? think somewhere in the 73-75% range? {nm} xiayun Jan 01, 10:05

I'm away from my computer at the moment, but for Jan to May 2012 you were at 77%, second to EW RogerMore Jan 01, 10:54

thx for putting all that together {nm} tealfan Jan 01, 10:24

Just wondering, for those in the know. How do these prediction companies make money from their predictions? elchan Jan 01, 14:01

I wouldn't say I am in the know, but movie studios and theatre companies would be the main customers RogerMore Jan 01, 14:43

to be clear - most "tracking" companies do not predict box office, they measure marketing. {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 14:45

Roger, thanks so much for putting this together. Truthfully, I'm honored that you even included me in the list and FilmGo Jan 02, 20:28





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Kate Mara (KMARA) 25000 9.37 (+0.15)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 150000 6.49 (+0.09)          Leviticus (LEVIT) 150000 6.49 (+0.09)          Jon Bernthal (JBERN) 25000 37.39 (+0.12)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 11.69 (+1.69)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 11.69 (+1.69)          Shiver (SHVER) 1 88.91 (-0.11)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 150000 13.06 (+0.02)          Gwendoline Christie (GCHRI) 25000 2.64 (0.00)          Ezra Miller (EMILL) 25000 106.34 (-0.33)          Evangeline Lilly (ELILL) 25000 173.65 (-0.50)          Romy & Michelle 2 (ROMY2) 150000 3.95 (-0.15)          Ray Gunn (RAYGN) 150000 7.01 (-0.04)          The Dog Stars (DOGST) 4200 79.19 (+0.72)          Jacob Elordi (JELOR) 5000 19.04 (+0.02)          Charlie Day (CDAY) 25000 103.18 (0.00)          Julia Butters (JBUTT) 2000 78.97 (-0.26)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 142.42 (+3.69)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 142.42 (+3.69)          Clifford the Big Red Dog 2 (CTBR2) 149996 1.02 (+0.05)          Clifford the Big Red Dog 2 (CTBR2) 149998 1.02 (+0.05)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 11.69 (+1.69)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 99.89 (-1.81)          The Lord of the Rings: The Hunt (LOTR5) 150000 182.04 (-1.39)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 150000 204.54 (-1.63)          Harold & Kumar 4 (HAKU4) 150000 13.66 (-0.10)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 150000 6.43 (-0.07)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 150000 33.11 (-0.03)          Metal Men (METAL) 150000 5.93 (-0.02)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 11.69 (+1.69)          Sicario 3 (SICA3) 150000 3.20 (-0.05)          Sam & Victor’s Day Off (SAVDO) 150000 7.06 (-0.03)          Trashers (TRSHR) 150000 0.07 (+0.01)          Killing Gawker (KGAWK) 150000 9.07 (-0.03)          The Rosie Project (ROSIE) 150000 0.04 (+0.02)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 26.62 (-0.16)          The Last Adventures Of Constance (CVERT) 150000 0.03 (0.00)          Soil (SOIL) 150000 0.04 (+0.02)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 150000 31.18 (-0.05)          Shockwave (SHKWV) 150000 0.08 (+0.03)          God's Country (GDSCN) 149996 0.54 (+0.02)          Star Trek (TREK4) 150000 21.44 (-0.04)          God's Country (GDSCN) 149998 0.54 (+0.02)          The Best is Yet to Come (TBYTC) 150000 12.37 (-0.07)          Full Phil (FPHIL) 150000 2.56 (-0.02)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 11.69 (+1.69)          Death Stranding (DSTRN) 150000 20.32 (-0.10)          The Shrinking of Treehorn (TSOTH) 149996 0.45 (+0.05)          The Shrinking of Treehorn (TSOTH) 149998 0.45 (+0.05)          Free Agents (FREAG) 150000 0.03 (+0.02)