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It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Jan 01, 15:04 in response to RogerMore's post Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many...

Following on from last night's movie prediction accuracy thread, here are the accuracy figures for 2011 and 2010. RogerMore Jan 01, 09:27

Time for RS to update its model. They are consistent losers. {nm} elchan Jan 01, 09:38

Can you believe they are a business? Makes me think I should start my own movie tracking company. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 09:54

i dont think they make much money off it. it supplements their main business (they are a theater chain) {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 12:35

Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many theatres should show the new releases :) {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 14:44

It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale Moviesnob Jan 01, 15:04

Yeah, I'm just being snarky. Thanks for the info. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 16:21

So here is the answer to JDolphin's question about how prediction sites performed with blockbusters: RogerMore Jan 01, 09:52

Wow - thanks a lot for all that work!! Happy New Year! {nm} JDolphin Jan 01, 13:20

How did I do overall at BOF for 2011? think somewhere in the 73-75% range? {nm} xiayun Jan 01, 10:05

I'm away from my computer at the moment, but for Jan to May 2012 you were at 77%, second to EW RogerMore Jan 01, 10:54

thx for putting all that together {nm} tealfan Jan 01, 10:24

Just wondering, for those in the know. How do these prediction companies make money from their predictions? elchan Jan 01, 14:01

I wouldn't say I am in the know, but movie studios and theatre companies would be the main customers RogerMore Jan 01, 14:43

to be clear - most "tracking" companies do not predict box office, they measure marketing. {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 14:45

Roger, thanks so much for putting this together. Truthfully, I'm honored that you even included me in the list and FilmGo Jan 02, 20:28





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Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 100000 7.87 (-0.11)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 218.03 (+7.85)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 150000 540.76 (+0.31)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 150000 540.76 (+0.31)          Barbarella (BARBA) 1 25.85 (-0.04)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 20.72 (+0.10)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTTY2) 10000 190.23 (+0.31)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 20.72 (+0.10)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 9000 23.04 (-0.41)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 97.64 (-2.75)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 6.28 (-0.62)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 6.28 (-0.62)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 97.64 (-2.75)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 97.64 (-2.75)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 1.89 (-0.11)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.18 (+0.18)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 97.64 (-2.75)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 97.64 (-2.75)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Final Destination 7 (FDES7) 4999 55.53 (-0.01)          Final Destination 7 (FDES7) 7220 55.53 (-0.01)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 5000 23.04 (-0.41)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 7500 95.93 (+0.74)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 7500 95.93 (+0.74)          Balls Up (BALUP) 15000 6.28 (-0.62)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 40000 23.54 (-0.10)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 140000 23.54 (-0.10)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 97.64 (-2.75)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 218.03 (+7.85)          All of a Sudden (AOASD) 149999 2.00 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 149999 20.18 (+0.18)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 218.03 (+7.85)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 80000 20.18 (+0.18)          Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (EBNZR) 150000 73.38 (-0.88)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 40000 20.18 (+0.18)          Charlie Harper (CHARP) 10000 4.57 (-0.04)          Johnny Depp (JDEPP) 25000 86.73 (-0.50)          Sam Claflin (SCLAF) 25000 13.99 (+0.08)          Sam Claflin (SCLAF) 20000 13.99 (+0.08)