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Following on from last night's movie prediction accuracy thread, here are the accuracy figures for 2011 and 2010.

Posted by: RogerMore on Jan 01, 09:27

First 2011:

RS 64.0%

MTC 74.4%

BOCOM 73.2%

WW 71.6%

BOG 71.1%

BOM 72.9%

FilmGo 77.6%

EW 76.2%

LAT 76.7%

THR 73.3%

Whisper 70.5%

Average 74.7%

And 2010:

RS 65.6%

MTC 75.9%

BOCOM 74.0%

WW 71.3%

BOG 71.5%

FilmGo 83.9%

EW 77.6%

LAT 77.2%

Average 76.2%

So yes - this year was less predictable than previous years. In 2011, almost every predictor fell into a band of 71% to 76% accuracy, save RS. And it was similar in 2012.

Obviously, we had a lot of big surprises from blockbuster movies overperforming - Avengers, Hunger Games, Skyfall, The Lorax etc but more importantly - as I'll show in my next post - a bunch of mid-range movies that came out of nowhere - The Vow, Safe House, Magic Mike, Think Like a Man, etc... Nine out of the 10 biggest adjusts this year were longs, and in fact this year you'd have made a lot more money by simply holding every opener long than you would have by following the numbers for any prediction site.

Following on from last night's movie prediction accuracy thread, here are the accuracy figures for 2011 and 2010. RogerMore Jan 01, 09:27

Time for RS to update its model. They are consistent losers. {nm} elchan Jan 01, 09:38

Can you believe they are a business? Makes me think I should start my own movie tracking company. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 09:54

i dont think they make much money off it. it supplements their main business (they are a theater chain) {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 12:35

Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many theatres should show the new releases :) {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 14:44

It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 15:04

Yeah, I'm just being snarky. Thanks for the info. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 16:21

So here is the answer to JDolphin's question about how prediction sites performed with blockbusters: RogerMore Jan 01, 09:52

Wow - thanks a lot for all that work!! Happy New Year! {nm} JDolphin Jan 01, 13:20

How did I do overall at BOF for 2011? think somewhere in the 73-75% range? {nm} xiayun Jan 01, 10:05

I'm away from my computer at the moment, but for Jan to May 2012 you were at 77%, second to EW RogerMore Jan 01, 10:54

thx for putting all that together {nm} tealfan Jan 01, 10:24