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Hello gary my good man, hope all has been well with you and yours. To your points, I did that research as well and

Posted by: lobogotti on Apr 28, 08:11 in response to second gary's post To play devil's advocate: sure there are no big-buzz...

the June factor isn't necessarily a hotbed of mega-openers. For that we agree.

However, here are a few things in Steels favor comparing it to say a non sequel Iron Man...

1. Because of where it sits in June, the film probably gets 4350+ theaters. If it just did Iron Man ($24k+ per), that alone gets it to 105M.

2. 3D ticket sales and IMAX. Iron Man didn't have the luxury of the upcharges that Steel does (it may have had IMAX, but I can't confirm that). These figures are also going to boost the per theater averages significantly.

3. Here are the Top 25 OW months:

March - 2
May - 11
June - 3
July - 4
November - 5

The 26th best opener was a June as well. Only 23 films have ever opened to 100M+, the first being Spider-Man in 2002. While May is where the action is, WB knew they couldn't open it around any of the current tentpoles. All of those May big dogs are sequels (Iron, Trek, Fast, Hangover) and have a built in fanbase that ultimately hurt OW.

However, what is encouraging is the fact that 2012 served up two comic films that opened to 160M+, while one of those the all-time record with 207M+ OW. None of us thought that was possible (207).

I have no doubt that TDKR opens to 15-20M more had it not been for the midnight shootings, but doubtful it would have came close to the Avengers opening.

The quality of comic book movies have changed significantly. Fans are anxious for the next big on screen presence, and in my opinion you're as good as your last offering in these directors cases. The WB, Legendary, Syncopy & Nolan credits are HUGE for this film. His last three films (The Dark Knight, Inception and TDKR) have opened to 158M, 63M & 161M. They had combined domestic grosses of 1.25B+. Every film he has been involved as a Director or Producer has had a 76% or better rating on RT. His last three films cited above were 94%, 86% and 87%. All time ranks on IMDB The Dark Knight is #7, Inception is #14 and TDKR is #48.

My point to that last paragraph is that people are already sold on his vision and ability to deliver. This is going to give Steel a bump that most reboots wouldn't get. The feel of trailers have you believe that Nolan is responsible for this film. And though Snyder slid in Sucker Punch, he made 300 a 70M+ opener in March with no-name actors at the time. All from the brillance of a trailer!!

Factor in the credentials of the two and I believe not only that the June OW is going down, but it's gonna get buried. Nolan isn't experimenting with a Dark Knight to test us, Snyder isn't introducing a 300. They are using a super-hero EVERYONE is familiar with. Not just the kids and fanboys are gonna line up, but all four quadrants are there for this one because of the expectation of director, more importantly producer.

The trailers have been magnificent. The buzz is there and will only continue to gain as we creep into June and leave Stark and Kirk behind.

Just my opinion, but I'm confidently calling 130M+ from over 6 weeks out. I of course could severely drop that prediction should reviews kill it.

I would gladly put a wager on the line for any takers as of today though, with confidence it's gonna get an 80%+ Fresh rating.

Yahoo Movie Poll - I have suspected that Man of Steel was going to open a lot bigger than most imagine since the first trailer. The last lobogotti Apr 27, 16:27

Man of Steel is a reboot and its always the sequels to reboots that open big. Current price would be a huge great opening {nm} notfabio Apr 27, 17:13

The recent Spider-Man reboot wasn't exceptional, was it? I doubt the Fantastic Four reboot will be either. {nm} KalElFan Apr 27, 17:42

I have every confidence that the action and visuals of Snyder, coupled with the storytelling of Nolan will make this film a HUGE success. {nm} lobogotti Apr 27, 17:49

while I don't disagree that 90-100M would be a great opening, I expect more from this film. lobogotti Apr 27, 17:45

How or if they report the Walmart tickets will be huge as it is several million dollars in tickets for just one thursday show {nm} notfabio Apr 27, 19:04

theatres are not redeeming the tickets into their box office so WB it wont show up on Rentrak etc {nm} notfabio Apr 27, 19:07

interesting indeed. but WB is going to want those numbers in the OW, right? {nm} lobogotti Apr 28, 07:05

Since the pre-sales and gross will be known in advance, I would think WB simply reports it and ERC adds it in. {nm} KalElFan Apr 27, 19:21