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That scenario is unlikely, but not unheard of.

Posted by: Jelly on Dec 15, 22:10 in response to GMov's post How accurate is the tracking for a movie like Avatar?

There are a lot of variables surrounding Avatar (the polarizing interest between demographics, the Christmas holiday looming, 3D ticket prices and interest, etc.). Also, I Am Legend adjusted up by 55% on this weekend just two years ago, posting the biggest December opening on record.

It would be a big surprise if Avatar opened in that ballpark, but keep in mind that MTC has it tracking at 72M, and the stock is currently trading higher than that. Obviously, the majority of traders are expecting it to end up above the mid to high 60s that RS pegged it at. So in terms of the game, it wouldn't be that huge of a deal.

How accurate is the tracking for a movie like Avatar? GMov Dec 15, 21:52

Tracking is something many people think they understand, but very few people actually do filmjerkcom Dec 15, 22:04

Thanks. Cool...I have a hunch that Avatar could be bigger than some of the recent estimates I've seen GMov Dec 15, 22:10

can someone direct me to where you get this 70 page tracker report? {nm} Jeje1 Dec 16, 08:05

If you feel like paying several thousand dollars a month for an edge on HSX.... ;) notfabio Dec 16, 09:04

Totally defying tracking isn't TOO rare, and it does tend to happen the most with new/different material like this. BUT there aren't many dsbman Dec 15, 22:07

Now, I will add, just like Havens, that movies regularly do differently than the tracking states. However, exceeding it by 30m, as you're dsbman Dec 15, 22:09

You guys are probably right... GMov Dec 15, 22:15

To be fair, though, both the studio and exhibitors are pushing advance sales for "Avatar" waaaay more than "2012", which was largely day-ofs dsbman Dec 15, 22:34

That scenario is unlikely, but not unheard of. Jelly Dec 15, 22:10

One thing that does concern me on that prognostication is the theater count at only 3300+...need that to get revised up on Thursday. {nm} GMov Dec 15, 22:18

THR says 3400-ish theaters, with almost 3000 3D and 3000 2D screens. Jelly Dec 15, 22:26

It's not unheard of but it's HIGHLY unlikely for the weekend before Christmas for a movie that's an unknown property. secretstalker Dec 16, 05:02

(And if it does get a huge bump, it'll be cause the tickets are priced 32-50% higher more than most movies.) {nm} secretstalker Dec 16, 05:04

that is a big key to this movie....3000 3D screens means quite a bump in average ticket price {nm} lapuckfan Dec 16, 09:43





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