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Also well received: DRSTR (2.42x) and DEADP (2.35x even though OW was inflated by a holiday, thus lowering the mult)

Posted by: shadowking (a.k.a shadowking13) on Mar 05, 10:12 in response to MattW's post Civil war was extremely well received but its total dom...

Something around 2.10x could happen, absolutely, but I think it represents the bottom end of what is reasonable.  There is some tough competition on the horizon, no doubt, and it doesn't have a big holiday mid-run like DRSTR had, but it does have college spring breaks coming up to buff mid-week number a bit.  I think something in the 2.25-2.30x range is reasonable starting point with anything outside of the wider range of 2.10-2.45 representing a surprise.

D; LOGAN $85.2m tomcat90 Mar 05, 07:56

SHACK $16.1m; BIFAL $4.8m-$4.9m {nm} tomcat90 Mar 05, 07:58

LOGAN $85.3m (typo) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 05, 08:07

$152.5m overseas, that's way more than I expected. MattW Mar 05, 09:28

Great job by BO on their forecast btw....they had $86m when many others had $65m-$70m {nm} tomcat90 Mar 05, 09:31

I *so* miss the adjusts. ~sniff~ {nm} =Flash Mar 05, 08:27

Currently priced for a 2.13 delist... which seems low even for a franchise famous for frontloading. {nm} diamondman56 Mar 05, 08:46

Also the first non-summer release other than Deadpool... diamondman56 Mar 05, 08:49

WOLVE did 1.92 Oleg Max Mar 05, 09:45

WOLV2 did 2.27 Oleg Max Mar 05, 09:47

True, but WOLVE was terrible, which does not appear to be the case with LOGAN {nm} shadowking Mar 05, 09:47

RT: WOLVE - 38%, WOLV2 - 69%, WOLV3 - 93% {nm} ~JPV~ Mar 05, 10:23

Civil war was extremely well received but its total dom multi was under 2.3, delist multi of 2.08 {nm} MattW Mar 05, 10:01

Also well received: DRSTR (2.42x) and DEADP (2.35x even though OW was inflated by a holiday, thus lowering the mult) shadowking Mar 05, 10:12

+1 {nm} MattW Mar 05, 10:27

(CAPA2 - 2.37) Yep, it's underpriced, but it's not that under-priced. And prices don't straight-line to the eventual delist {nm} RogerMore Mar 05, 10:47

What's another $50 amongst friends haha? {nm} tomcat90 Mar 05, 09:06

For anyone holding the PU option short... don't spend it all in one place! {nm} ~JPV~ Mar 05, 09:39

there is a hot looking concept stock for $0.02 that I have had my eye on for a while. {nm} RazorHawk Mar 05, 11:20

Whatever the final multiplier will be, you have to admit that it's pretty lame for the stock to be exactly where it was when est. were $70m {nm} tomcat90 Mar 05, 09:54

Maybe yesterday was just a sign that people are wising up and not paying attention to the early estimates any more shadowking Mar 05, 09:58

But that would make the assumption that people were all expecting $85m (a 2.16 multiplier) instead of the 2.63 mult. for $70mOW right? {nm} tomcat90 Mar 05, 10:09

That's not true. The estimates was $79M right before reset when the closing price for Fri was recorded. {nm} Antibody Mar 05, 10:22

You are correct, but earlier in the day, the estimates from Deadline were posted at $70m-$72m and the stock was at $185 tomcat90 Mar 05, 10:34

Nope, it was at $180 around noon. {nm} Antibody Mar 05, 10:39

I don't have the exact time and sales of every tick of the stock, but i saw it at $185 during the day. And even if it was $180.... tomcat90 Mar 05, 10:45

There's an element of profit taking on every opening Sunday. {nm} Antibody Mar 05, 10:49

Sure... after an adjust where there actually was some form of profit to take. {nm} diamondman56 Mar 05, 12:03

at noon it was 183.45 - so you're both half right http://theun4gven.com/hsx/daily.php?sec=WOLV3 {nm} JDolphin Mar 05, 13:41

Or we all know we still have 4 weeks to make that 7 or 8 percent gain. {nm} Dbot1800 Mar 05, 10:43

depending on actuals, a real chance at being the FIFTH best X-Men opening ever! (and best in the two-film Wolverine series!!) {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 05, 13:37





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The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 10000 497.02 (-1.55)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 34464 145.00 (0.00)          Ice Fall (ICFAL) 150000 2.58 (-0.02)          Last Meals (LMEAL) 1800 1.00 (0.00)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 150000 239.58 (+1.61)          The Drama (TDRAM) 8999 31.76 (+2.07)          Logan's Run (LOGAN) 6 3.54 (-0.02)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 145000 239.58 (+1.61)          Varanasi (VARAN) 50000 10.00 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 31000 207.89 (-1.57)          Ralph Fiennes (RFIEN) 25000 26.67 (+0.73)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 7777 239.58 (+1.61)          G.I. Joe sequel (GIJO4) 25 18.99 (+0.41)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 25000 422.85 (+2.85)          Varanasi (VARAN) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 24288 2.00 (0.00)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 90000 137.07 (-0.97)          The Beast (TBEAS) 230 7.33 (-0.03)          Margaret Qualley (MQUAL) 25000 8.05 (+0.40)          The Surgeon (SURGN) 190 9.22 (-0.02)          Momo (MOMO) 150000 4.53 (-0.03)          Switzerland (SWITZ) 1800 1.12 (0.00)          Legacy (LGACY) 150000 3.24 (-0.07)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 17060 239.58 (+1.61)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 170 12.26 (+0.06)          Cloverfield 2 (CLOV2) 50000 13.07 (-0.04)          Hotel Tehran (HTHRN) 5 5.20 (+0.02)          Boiuna: Legend of the Amazon (BOUNA) 150000 19.45 (-0.12)          Glen Powell (GPOWE) 25000 82.12 (+1.33)          The Drama (TDRAM) 8887 31.76 (+2.07)          Losing Earth aka The Statement (LERTH) 3 8.87 (-0.01)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 50000 12.26 (+0.06)          Moana (MOAN1) 10000 222.56 (-0.47)          Lear Rex (LEREX) 400 4.87 (-0.05)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 712 2.00 (0.00)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 15 32.14 (+0.45)          The Drama (TDRAM) 9899 31.76 (+2.07)          Hokum (HOKUM) 20000 9.46 (+0.38)          Magic: The Gathering (MGCTG) 65 33.57 (-0.03)          Metal Men (METAL) 230 7.68 (-0.03)          What Happens At Night (WHANT) 22500 39.73 (+1.07)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 3.62 (-0.03)          The Drama - Opening Weekend (TDRAM.OW) 100000 15.00 (0.00)          Ed Harris (EHARR) 25000 53.22 (-0.50)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 4 7.69 (-0.01)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 94581 145.00 (0.00)          Highlander (HIGHL) 37500 38.32 (+0.01)          Alma (ALMA) 150000 3.03 (-0.01)          Charlotte Rampling (CRAMP) 25000 73.14 (+1.20)