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Closest comparison for precedent here would be the effect of Aurora on the box office when TDKR opened. Not on the same level $$-wise for BR

Posted by: ShawnMR on Oct 07, 15:49 in response to ShawnMR's post It's the only explanation that makes sense at this point....

but still, it's the non-data element that actually explains why every other metric failed BR's potential in a major way. Presales, social buzz, reviews, star power, relatively open market, history of October proving friendly to adult-driven semi-tentpole dramas... it was lined up to do very, very well. And then it didn't.

It's getting worse...THR: Blade Runner 2049 Crashing With $30M-$35M Debut tomcat90 Oct 07, 08:42

I really suspect that Las Vegas shooting may hurt the film's box office potential; now isn't a good time to release a R-rated violence film {nm} Peterlee Oct 07, 08:48

nah. it's just overlong and boring {nm} slipping jimmy Oct 07, 08:49

A- CinemaScore and overall 83% positive PostTrak audience score indicate that most audience who watched the film are satisfied {nm} Peterlee Oct 07, 08:55

That doesn't help if not enough people want to watch the film in the first place. {nm} warcraft86 Oct 07, 09:10

yes. ( I think MGM is smart to move "Death Wish" to 2018) {nm} Peterlee Oct 07, 09:11

So that potential goes back to the first point of the Vegas shooting spoiling appetites for a movie like Blade Runner 2049. {nm} Jay_Beezy Oct 07, 09:22

there's no logical connection between the two things {nm} slipping jimmy Oct 07, 09:25

But the shooting didn't seem to impact the Thurs preview number, which was in-line with PRME2, a similarly violent, R-rated, sci-fi sequel {nm} warcraft86 Oct 07, 09:28

Core fan bases aren't deterred by much (if anything). Casual audiences are, and casual audiences drive Fri-Sat-Sun more than Thurs shows. {nm} ShawnMR Oct 07, 15:53

IMO casual audiences were more referred by having to do homework (watch the original movie) than anything in the real world {nm} RogerMore Oct 07, 20:17

nope, most moviegoers don't care about a 35 year old box office flop {nm} jamesbik333 Oct 07, 09:07

of course they do. Blade Runner is the most influential sci-fi movie post-Star Wars. {nm} slipping jimmy Oct 07, 09:31

They really don't. {nm} CSBD Oct 07, 09:33

Nope, the original was terrible and boring just like 2049 is boring and terrible. {nm} skunkrunner Oct 07, 10:25

So, I guess you saw them both. Well, I dont understand, why you went to 2049 if you think, the original was terrible and boring. sphere Oct 08, 05:41

It's the only explanation that makes sense at this point. There were barely any indications this would open below $35-40M -- at the floor. {nm} ShawnMR Oct 07, 15:43

Closest comparison for precedent here would be the effect of Aurora on the box office when TDKR opened. Not on the same level $$-wise for BR ShawnMR Oct 07, 15:49

Wouldn't the effect of the shooting have shown up in the pre-sales and "social buzz" metrics? {nm} warcraft86 Oct 07, 17:08

Not necessarily, but maybe (great non-answer answer, I know). Presales are geared toward fans to begin with, while social buzz is usually ShawnMR Oct 07, 17:26

Thanks for elevating the discussion with your insights today. {nm} Qix Oct 07, 17:46

alternative explanation: it's just not very good (or at least not appealing enough to mainstream audiences, especially at a 2:45 hr runtime) {nm} slipping jimmy Oct 07, 18:32

even mike255 couldn't make this argument and keep a straight face {nm} slipping jimmy Oct 07, 17:45

Mike who? {nm} fricnfractal Oct 07, 23:14

The demographics explain it all.This connected to a specific group of filmgoers. I would question the forecasts before blaming Vegas. {nm} leo21 Oct 08, 13:27

Antifa and the news cycle has everybody staying away from "Soft Targets" from theaters to churches to parades. {nm} arf Oct 07, 21:13

Very pleased to see this, audiences not being fooled by pretentious, boring BS. {nm} skunkrunner Oct 07, 10:26





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