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Why are you grinding the axe so hard on this? You don't normally get this bent out of shape about a moviestock.
Politics, yes; news reporting and tagging, yes. But I can't recall you flogging a horse about box office and stock prices this incessantly. Are you just savoring your "rightness" with this?
Anywho, you are a good enough player to know that your calculations are disingenous at best. Yes, there is no way (and was no way) that STAR8 was going to match STAR7 for box office, regardless of its quality. A huge factor that you aren't addressing is the fact that schools were out for STAR7's first full week, which accounts for a big chunk of the discrepancy between the 2 in their first 7 day totals.
Then, comparing their 10 day totals (or really, their second weekends), you aren't mentioning that STAR7 had the Xmas Eve dip on Thursday, thus allowing it to benefit from the super-strong Xmas day bump on it's 2nd Friday, leading into a rather robust weekend covering the 25th through the 27th. STAR8 of course has it's second Friday fall on the 22nd, the last day of school for many and also probably a big travel day. Its second Sunday falls on XMas eve, thus accounting for the huge dip.
I'd go out on a limb and think that tomorrow, STAR8 will have a pretty serious bump to the low to mid 20s, and carry that through Jan 1st. I'm thinking for those 8 days, it'll pull around $160, maybe even 180. Within screaming distance of 620 for delist. But, I admit that, even though I was a pretty good player back in the day, I sucked at guesstimating actual box office.
And, yes, that's still nowhere close to what STAR7 had even at the end of it's 2nd full week. I'd be interested to see how STAR8 played out in the alternate universe where it had the same exact release pattern/box office dates as STAR7.
BOM Estimates: (STAR8) 365 MILL Is Now An Estimated 175 MILL Behind The 10-Day Pace of (STAR7) 540 MILL. {nm} Dec 24, 16:18
To Delist CashOut at 637.00, (STAR8) needs to match the last 14-Days of (STAR7) 272 MILL. {nm} Dec 24, 16:19
The real story is Jumanji > JL domestic Dec 25, 08:49
Jumanji 19m Monday, 72m for 6.5 days. It's def gonna end up over 230, I'm sure of it. 4th weekend at least 165 {nm} Dec 25, 22:43
The 7-Day Period (Day 4 to Day 10) (STAR8) 145 MILL is just an Estimated 49% of (STAR7) 293 MILL. {nm} Dec 24, 16:21
The 10-Day Estimated Total for (STAR8) 365 MILL is just 67.6% of (STAR7) 540 MILL. {nm} Dec 24, 16:23
A Continued 67.6% of (STAR7) for the next 14 Days would put the Delist CashOut of (STAR8) at 548.85. {nm} Dec 24, 16:25
One HSX Poster famously proclaimed that (STAR8) would be Sh*tting-The-Bed with a Delist Under 730.00. Dec 24, 17:05
*Sends New Bed Sheets via Fedex.* {nm} Dec 24, 17:06
So: what is it you're trying to say? {nm} Dec 25, 01:21
so it's kinda ****ting the bed. who cares? {nm} Dec 24, 19:17
(i also said that before i actually saw it) {nm} Dec 24, 19:18
Any Trader that made the Wrong Trades relying on your 730.00 / 750.00 Delist CashOut Projections might care. {nm} Dec 25, 00:42
then it's their fault for doing so...it's all opinion...like he said, who cares? give it up, dude {nm} Dec 25, 01:03
Don't dismiss valid comparison out of hand. SW8 underperformed by OW similar to SW2 AoTC RT aud score matters {nm} Dec 25, 17:47
Why are you grinding the axe so hard on this? You don't normally get this bent out of shape about a moviestock. Dec 24, 17:36
Grinding the Axe? Disingenuous Calculations? EVERY Calculation is FACTUAL based entirely on FACT (Estimates). {nm} Dec 24, 17:53
Except estimates are guesses, not facts. Please go away {nm} Dec 25, 11:37
The only thing that matters if it's the 1st 100M delist for me. Gonna be close. Love shorting. {nm} Dec 24, 22:53
That what this game is all about. Just ask Roto. {nm} Dec 25, 00:47