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Wasn't a problem for Venom! Black Adam has a lot more star power, but a less popular character.
I think the tracking is fairly reasonable this far out, personally (I liked Sony trying to sell VENOM 2 opening in the 40's when it opened to double that). Other than a soft 2nd weekend for Halloween Ends and Ticket To Paradise will be going into a barren box office which helps.
If by some miracle the reshoots have done the trick and it's great, it has some room for legs before Wakanda Forever rips them off. So far advance ticketing looks fine for 60+ opening, but Wakanda is doing substantially better.
THR: Initial tracking on BLACK ADAM $70-75 million opening. Oct 04, 15:19
Tracking in line with the OG Venom ($80 million) but analysts are not ready to go there quite yet. {nm} Oct 04, 15:20
DL: Tracking strong with guys over and under 25, women under 25, hispanic/latino/families (they are going with $65-70) {nm} Oct 04, 16:10
DL & THR: trackings [BADAM] Oct 04, 16:54
Movie doesn't seem to have as much buzz as The Rock himself. This one's a true test of star power {nm} Oct 04, 18:27
Trailers have also been consistently unremarkable. Surely ultimate quality will play a factor. {nm} Oct 04, 18:55
Wasn't a problem for Venom! Black Adam has a lot more star power, but a less popular character. Oct 05, 11:23
San Andreas is the only big movie he's ever opened entirely by himself (not IP-based or sequel) that i can recall {nm} Oct 04, 20:17