A starbond's TAG = the average box office of their last 5 movies:
(Movie 1 + Movie 2 + Movie 3 + Movie 4 + Movie 5) divided by 5 = TAG
In situations where a starbond has less than 5 movies listed on their starbond page we use the following formulas for adjusting them:
1st movie released = no adjust
2nd movie released = (Movie 1 + Movie 2) divided by 3 = new TAG
3rd movie released = (Movie 1 + Movie 2 + Movie 3) divided by 3 = new TAG
4th movie released = (Movie 1 + Movie 2 + Movie 3 + Movie 4) divided by 4 = new TAG
When a starbond adjusts, the price is frozen on Monday afternoon (HSX time) and on Tuesday morning the new TAGs are calculated and the price of the starbonds are "adjusted" to match the new TAG.
If a starbond is trading at $75 and the new TAG would end up being $65, then on Monday the price is frozen at $75 and on Tuesday the price would be "adjusted" (changed) to $65. Players holding that starbond long would lose $10 per share. Players holding that starbond short would gain $10 profit per share.
The price of a starbond is always changing as players buy/sell and long/short each starbond. Players are trying to to guess and estimate which movie each starbond will adjust for next, and they are trying to predict how much that box office that movie make so they can estimate what the new TAG will be (aka the "adjust").
Many times a starbond price will come very close to its adjust price before the adjust actually happens. Sometimes there is such a big difference between the trading price and the adjust price (new TAG) that you can make a nice profit.
Semi related question = yes. If a starbond is going to adjust to $35 and its price is already very close to that amount $34 - $36, then it can be unprofitable to invest in that adjust.
Here is a listing of starbonds that will be adjusting soon (and at the time of posting) still had some profit potenital (link).
Here is a link to a column that happens each week after the starbonds adjust that estimates each starbonds next adjust (link)
These are just some basic ideas to help get you started and to answer your questions.