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Dude! Nobody is debating the definition of an idependent probality. That is not the point.

Posted by: Guillo (a.k.a HSXGuillo91) on Sep 17, 11:01 in response to SocioEvo's post Ok, the win percentages are independent on the day. Some...

First of all there are 7 icons so is 1/7 or 14.28% rounded if you like to 14.3% like "Perfection" said. So your number is wrong.... twice. 

Second there is no problem with the above; since to make a mistake is human, i think most people here get along and more importantly the purpose of the post is to call to attention to the HSX staff that the past version seems to have more chances to win than the current, perhaps the question mark in the original message throw you off, it was for "flavor".

This is an obserbation based in my experience and in no moment a statiscal analysis was made and like you stated in your first replied it is assumed the event to be independent and random. Other people have posted something similar (the observation no the statistical crap) in the past but I waited until more time has passed in order to be fair.

Also just in case, one thing is probability and another is distribution of that probability (what you call "streak" in this case, since we both assume the event to be indepent and probably binomial what you say it is true specially when more data or trials are perfomed.  However is being recommended by people who knows statistics and calculated them for purposes of national standardized multiple test questions like the SAT (same scenario like this) that assuming that you can not discard any alternative (like this ignoring the load speed comment) you are better off by choosing one letter constantly trough the test (my aproach). To be fair there are other recomendations there like always answers a question due to the grading procedure performed and that as for now the letter C tend to hit spot in this situation. While blown out of proportion you likely had oberved the idea in a couple of movies or at least read it somewhere. 

As why I will like to odds to increase is because I and I think many more will like to have more money in their port to invest. 50 K is not an amount that is big enough to take away competion nor is small emough to be useless if played properly. In fact I am sure that as the likehood of winning this increases more players will check their ports daily and more compentiton will arise since it will be easier to move up in the ranks.  And since the idea is to invest, there are some people that have their money tied up and need some extra cash to take other oportunities whatever small they may be. By example I have as today 169 M and since another HSX player "thanks Roger Moore" explained to me how bonds works close around 6 or 8 weeks ago I have been playing that area and at least in the the last 18 days I have an average of 1 M growth daily. If you see my cash you will see that most days I have 20 K or less unless I have to keep it for something in particular stated in the calendar for that week.





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