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Whisper Numbers: Will Super 8 capture first place?

Wedged in a weekend between the openings of two big-budgeted superhero films is an earnst, throwback film Super 8 [SUPR8] with a moderate budget and no stars in the cast. The PG-13 rated film set in 1979 is director J.J. Abrams’ [JABRA] homage to early films by Steven Spielberg such as Close Encounters of the Third Kind and E.T.. The first teaser was released a year ago before the film was even in production. However, Paramount’s marketing campaign has remained vague in order to shroud the story in a veil of secrecy. Unfortunately, that low-key approach has resulted in soft tracking that indicate low interest from today’s youthful moviegoers. Nostalgic, older moviegoers will wait to gauge the reviews instead of rushing out opening weekend. Hoping to build up some last minute buzz, Paramount enlisted Twitter to promote Thursday sneak previews in about 300 theaters. Breaking into 3379 theaters, Super 8 could capture about $32 million for ifrs place.

The relaunch of the mutant superhero franchise X-Men: First Class [XMEN4] came in at the low end of expectations, but earned great reviews and word of mouth. With the new openers not looking strong, X-Men: First Class should soften its decay to around 50% for a $27 million second weekend.

The comedy sequel The Hangover Part II [HNOV2] should clear around $16 million, while the animated Kung Fu Panda 2 [PAND2] looks to punch out $14 million, both for their third weekend at the box office.

Based on the kids’ book series, Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer [JUDYM] hopes to attract the whole family though it may have to settle for just the girls and their moms. Last year’s Ramona and Beezus opened to $7.8 million despite having Selena Gomez. Judy Moody is likely headed for less at around $7 million from 2524 theaters.

After collecting $7.8 million in three weeks of limited release, Midnight in Paris [MIDNP] expands wide into 944 theaters. The Woody Allen [WALLE] comedy is enjoying some of the best reviews and buzz of his recent films.  Adult moviegoers could bring Midnight in Paris to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): SUPR8, JABRA, XMEN4, HNOV2, PAND2, JUDYM, MIDNP, WALLE

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 9, 2011 @ 03:30 PM 5886 views

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Gambino (GMBNO) 149998 9.82 (-0.68)          Good People Bad Things (GPBT) 149996 9.88 (-0.63)          Good People Bad Things (GPBT) 149998 9.88 (-0.63)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 150000 62.10 (+1.21)          Call of Duty (CODUT) 5000 76.39 (+2.14)          Hope (HOPE) 149996 6.04 (+0.11)          Emma Laird (ELAIR) 485 20.33 (+0.12)          Hope (HOPE) 149998 6.04 (+0.11)          Runner (RUNNR) 20000 13.59 (+0.64)          Hypno-Hustler (HYPHU) 1 5.48 (0.00)          Untitled Kyoto Project (KYOTO) 149996 11.27 (-0.72)          Untitled Kyoto Project (KYOTO) 149998 11.27 (-0.72)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 288.85 (+0.75)          Mamma Mia 3 (MAMI3) 149998 26.75 (-0.16)          Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 24999 26.60 (+0.24)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 2 35.09 (+0.02)          The Brink of War aka Reykjavik (REYKJ) 149996 6.20 (+0.11)          World War Hulk (THLK2) 150000 33.95 (+0.01)          The Brink of War aka Reykjavik (REYKJ) 149998 6.20 (+0.11)          The Saviors (SAVIR) 149996 4.21 (+0.36)          The Saviors (SAVIR) 149998 4.21 (+0.36)          Static Shock (STATC) 150000 2.87 (+0.07)          Robert Downey Jr. (RDOWN) 25000 228.35 (+0.50)          Static Shock (STATC) 149998 2.87 (+0.07)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 149998 9.16 (+0.02)          The Third Parent (T3RDP) 149996 5.79 (-0.18)          The Third Parent (T3RDP) 149998 5.79 (-0.18)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 2 255.58 (+0.25)          Thumb (THUM) 149996 5.17 (-0.18)          Thumb (THUM) 149998 5.17 (-0.18)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 150000 62.10 (+1.21)          Tom and Jerry: Forbidden Compass (TMJR2) 149998 20.47 (+0.23)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 376 62.10 (+1.21)          Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 25000 26.60 (+0.24)          They Will Kill You (TWKYU) 150000 12.47 (-0.10)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 1234 62.10 (+1.21)          Margot Robbie (MROBB) 25000 77.09 (+0.25)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 26835 62.10 (+1.21)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 8963 62.10 (+1.21)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 5000 407.11 (-2.84)          50 Cent Curtis Jackson (50CEN) 25000 51.33 (+0.33)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 14506 117.21 (-0.14)          Normal (NORML) 1000 12.96 (-0.47)          River (RIVE1) 150000 2.11 (+0.24)          Normal (NORML) 10000 12.96 (-0.47)          Rapture (RAPTU) 150000 2.10 (+0.13)          Miss Piggy (MSPIG) 150000 30.77 (-0.07)          Jack O'Connell (JAOCO) 25000 74.31 (-0.25)          Miss Piggy (MSPIG) 150000 30.77 (-0.07)          Peter Berg (PEBER) 25000 71.25 (+0.50)