HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

I disagree, it IS 100% arbitrage....(Dorfman et al.)

Posted by: blinkuldhc on Aug 04, 21:25 in response to Dorfman's post yeah its not ARB unless its already made more money than...

...in that the trade sequence delivers 100% risk-free profit. If you purchase one share of Change-Up, purchase one put option of Change-Up, and short one call option of Change-Up, there is literally no opening weekend gross that would NOT return an overall profit. That is, if you define "arbitrage" as the practice of making a trade or trades that return(s) a risk-free profit. In this case, if you took all three positions as stated above, there is a completely risk-free expectation of profit. Even considering commission, there is NO OPENING WEEKEND GROSS that does NOT return a profit on the above trade sequence. Dorfman, if you can find ONE "price" (i.e., an opening weekend number) for Change-Up whereby I would lose money, please give me that price, and show your work =) Yeah, if Change-Up somehow impossibly and simultaneously opened below $19, above $26 AND between $22-$25 I would lose money, as your example suggests. But I can guarantee you 100% that I will make money on the above trade this weekend no matter what Change-Up opens at.





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Outcome (OUTCM) 900 5.83 (-4.03)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.30 (+1.63)          Shelter (SELTR) 150000 12.05 (-1.21)          America Ferrera (AFERR) 25000 120.44 (+13.19)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 700 227.06 (-1.98)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 25000 10.83 (-0.35)          America Ferrera (AFERR) 25000 120.44 (+13.19)          How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTTY2) 250 178.47 (+0.86)          Heel (HEEL) 20026 1.00 (0.00)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 500 351.57 (+1.24)          Melanie Lynskey (MLYNS) 25000 5.84 (-0.10)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 149000 111.54 (+2.51)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 350 18.30 (+1.63)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 10000 181.67 (+0.48)          Iron Lung (IRONL) 150000 24.29 (-0.07)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 3218 41.51 (+1.64)          Send Help (SENDH) 150000 46.28 (-0.31)          The Riders (RIDER) 875 36.58 (+2.09)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 250 111.54 (+2.51)          Send Help (SENDH) 150000 46.28 (-0.31)          America Ferrera (AFERR) 25000 120.44 (+13.19)          Send Help (SENDH) 150000 46.28 (-0.31)          Jodie Turner-Smith (JTSMI) 1514 23.58 (+0.01)          Jodie Turner-Smith (JTSMI) 1000 23.58 (+0.01)          Will Ferrell (WFERR) 1 106.54 (-0.57)          Will Ferrell (WFERR) 25000 106.54 (-0.57)          Troy Kotsur (TKOTS) 25000 8.39 (-0.52)          Will Arnett (WARNE) 700 33.18 (-2.22)          The Drama (TDRAM) 500 22.99 (+0.73)          Natalie Portman (NPORT) 25000 100.31 (+0.90)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 18.30 (+1.63)          Full Phil (FPHIL) 150000 4.58 (+0.80)          Full Phil (FPHIL) 150000 4.58 (+0.80)          Mark Ruffalo (MRUFF) 25000 68.43 (-36.24)          The Drama (TDRAM) 150000 22.99 (+0.73)          The Drama (TDRAM) 150000 22.99 (+0.73)          Shu Qi (SHUQI) 1000 0.87 (0.00)          Shu Qi (SHUQI) 1000 0.87 (0.00)          Will Ferrell (WFERR) 25000 106.54 (-0.57)          Will Arnett (WARNE) 25000 33.18 (-2.22)          Will Arnett (WARNE) 25000 33.18 (-2.22)          Morena Baccarin (MBACC) 24999 54.41 (-0.59)          Troy Kotsur (TKOTS) 25000 8.39 (-0.52)          Troy Kotsur (TKOTS) 25000 8.39 (-0.52)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 150000 18.97 (-0.40)          Roman Griffin Davis (RGDAV) 25000 36.60 (+0.01)          F1 - Picture (A6PF1) 25000 0.22 (-0.04)          Bradley Cooper (BCOOP) 24999 126.91 (-0.02)          Omar Sy (OSY) 25000 64.80 (-0.34)          Sentimental Value - Picture (A6PSEN) 25000 0.82 (-0.06)