HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Reply Topic List All Forums

report abuse

Oh! Oh! I can help with bonds!

Posted by: SocioEvo (a.k.a del_VJE_SocioEvo) on Sep 09, 17:37 in response to HuskyMiller's post Thanks Catzan. And thanks for all you insightful posts. I...

StarBonds and You: A Love-Love Relationship

Why StarBonds, Socio?

Well, StarBonds can be easy to forecast for because of how their TAGs adjust.

TAGs? What's a TAG?

TAG stands for Trailing Average Gross. It consists of the 5 most recent movies a star or director were accredited to. Let's look at an example: Brad Pitt (BPITT)

If you look at his StarBond page, you'll see his TAG, which is at H$68,632,982

This is the Average of the last 5 movie grosses, in this case (Babel, Ocean's 13, Assassination of Jesse James, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button). If you look at each of those movie's pages and look at the box office gross, add them all up, and divide by 5, you'll come up with his TAG.

Ok, but what does it MEAN?

The TAG is how Bonds adjust. When a new movie delists (Inglorious Basterds soon), it's added into the TAG and the oldest movie (in this case Babel) is removed and the average is calculated again. Inglorious Basterds has made $95,146,096 so far whereas Babel only made $34,300,771.

And???

Each time a StarBond is adjusted, all previous box office grosses are updated. So The Curious Case of Benjamin Button delisted at H$103,610,000, however it continued making money, up to $127,490,802. This change is included in the newly adjusted TAG, along with the new delisted movie.

Why is it divided by 5? What if they just got into movies?

For new actors that are IPO'd, their adjust works a little differently, until they get to five movies on their resume. For the second and third movies added to their resume (and I'll note here, they don't adjust for the first movie), their TAG results from a division of 3. When they add a 4th movie, it's divided by 4, and then they arrive at the 5th movie.

So, when do they adjust?

Generally speaking, if it isn't an extended weekend like we just had, they'll Halt trading on Monday and they'll adjust on Tuesday.

When should I buy them?

With all the numbers that are present on this site, you can calculate the TAG adjustments for StarBonds for weeks in advanced. Sometimes you'll find actors or actresses who's next movie is small and who's oldest movie was a box office smash (Transformers, Spiderman, Pirates, etc.). With that knowledge, you can short them and make a lot of money. Or maybe it's the opposite, their newest film is a sure-fire hit and their oldest was a small money-maker, go long and profit. You can determine for yourself, with a little math, how good a bond will adjust. Or you can use ProjectGenome or The-Numbers, as they run hot sheets on Bond prices, TAGs, and Adjusts.

If I was wrong or missed something, please correct me.

-socioevo

who likes to crunch numbers