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Playing & Trading Strategy

In your example above where the TAG is 40 and the Starbond is at 20 what is probably happening is that people see that

Posted by: Willroast on Jan 04, 08:05 in response to Willroast's post the day that their most recent movie delists (so 4...

that Stars next movie is actually going to lower their TAG to about 20 and are shorting it in anticipation of the next adjust.

So let's say Matt Damon has a TAG of 40 (which is based on his 5 most recent movies). His next movie is scheduled to release in a few weeks and it's expected to only make a small BO (we'll say 20M). Once that movie delists, it will replace the last movie on his TAG. If that last movie made 120M in the BO, this would be a 20M replacing a 120M which would cause his TAG to drop $20 at the next adjust. Lots of players would see this adjust coming and would start shorting his bond knowing that at next adjust it will drop.

According to FAQ's, TAG's for starbonds are updated every week. Is this correct? So if the TAG is say 40 and Star Bond price is 20 and is ankurbe Jan 04, 06:53

I'm not sure how often the Starbond is adjusted after their main adjust after their most recent movie has delisted, but it does happen. Willroast Jan 04, 07:11

Sorry didn't quiet understand that...can anyone else help please? {nm} ankurbe Jan 04, 07:34

No problem bud. I think I may have been a little off anyway. The main thing to think about with Starbonds adjusting to match their TAGS Willroast Jan 04, 07:54

the day that their most recent movie delists (so 4 weekends after opening day) *or 12 weekends in the case of a Limeted release {nm} Willroast Jan 04, 07:57

In your example above where the TAG is 40 and the Starbond is at 20 what is probably happening is that people see that Willroast Jan 04, 08:05

** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** elchan2012 Jan 04, 08:02

So Tags basically dont move on a weekly basis (on the basis of the Actors movie's BO) and only on Delisting of the movie? Right? {nm} ankurbe Jan 04, 08:04

** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** elchan2012 Jan 04, 08:07

Waiting for Roto... {nm} socby19 Jan 04, 10:20

Technically the tags change when Antibody updates it. But, that's not necessary on any schedule that I'm aware of. {nm} elchan2012 Jan 04, 12:19

Still, by the time that the tag is updated, by Anitibody, it's too late to make any profit. {nm} elchan2012 Jan 04, 12:20

But it makes it easier to tell which direction is right for the next adjust. {nm} socby19 Jan 04, 13:33

A Classic Example of a TAG increasing well after the Adjust Date is ... (See Inside). RotoHockeyYTD2013 Jan 04, 17:09

My last post should say 'direction relative to the current price" {nm} socby19 Jan 04, 20:11

Will has got this one right. TAGs are regularly updated, but... thatmichaelguy Jan 04, 08:05

Got it guys...Thanks a lot! Reason i am asking this is..... ankurbe Jan 04, 08:18

Martin Freeman is another ARB {nm} ankurbe Jan 04, 08:30

HowProfitable.com has these expected adjusts for DDEHA. elchan2012 Jan 04, 08:44

Thanks a lot elchan! I was unncessarily breaking my head. Didnt know this existed {nm} ankurbe Jan 04, 09:24

Still nice to know how things work. There are subtleties that the model can't calculate. Read the top discussion on Star forum about WHARR elchan2012 Jan 04, 09:51





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Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 3 137.45 (-0.74)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 3 137.45 (-0.74)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 1 259.50 (-1.46)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 1 259.50 (-1.46)          George Clinton biopic (GCLNT) 150000 19.74 (-0.08)          George Clinton biopic (GCLNT) 1 19.74 (-0.08)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 79.74 (-3.60)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 19.62 (-0.08)          Madden (MADEN) 2 19.62 (-0.08)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 79.74 (-3.60)          Whitney Springs aka Untitled Tre (WHTSP) 150000 24.42 (-0.09)          Whitney Springs aka Untitled Tre (WHTSP) 2 24.42 (-0.09)          Stuntnuts: The Movie (STUNT) 150000 15.73 (-0.10)          Stuntnuts: The Movie (STUNT) 2 15.73 (-0.10)          Marty Supreme (MRTSU) 3 30.61 (-0.10)          Marty Supreme (MRTSU) 3 30.61 (-0.10)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 11.01 (+0.04)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 11.01 (+0.04)          FOX: Best Medicine (BESMED) 25000 8.03 (+0.26)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 150000 42.27 (-0.71)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 87.60 (+1.48)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 25000 2.50 (+0.50)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 87.60 (+1.48)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 15165 27.27 (+2.27)          David (DAVID) 150000 76.68 (+1.94)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 1 42.27 (-0.71)          David (DAVID) 150000 76.68 (+1.94)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 150000 42.09 (-0.19)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 1 42.09 (-0.19)          The Chosen Season 6 (TCS61) 3 11.91 (-0.28)          The Chosen Season 6 (TCS61) 3 11.91 (-0.28)          Now You See Me: Now You Don't (NYSM3) 10 55.51 (-0.31)          Now You See Me: Now You Don't (NYSM3) 10 55.51 (-0.31)          The Garfield Movie 2 (GRFL2) 1 29.94 (-0.35)          The Garfield Movie 2 (GRFL2) 1 29.94 (-0.35)          Evel Knievel on Tour (EVKNV) 1 25.07 (-0.45)          Evel Knievel on Tour (EVKNV) 1 25.07 (-0.45)          Wicked: For Good (WCKD2) 10 360.24 (-1.68)          Wicked: For Good (WCKD2) 10 360.24 (-1.68)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 1000 4.56 (+0.81)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 3 79.74 (-3.60)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 79.74 (-3.60)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 1000 4.56 (+0.81)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 3000 4.56 (+0.81)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 3000 4.56 (+0.81)          Soulm8te (SOM8T) 3 16.89 (-1.86)          Soulm8te (SOM8T) 150000 16.89 (-1.86)          King (KING) 150000 4.07 (+0.18)          King (KING) 150000 4.07 (+0.18)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 79.74 (-3.60)