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Playing & Trading Strategy

I'm no statistician either....

Posted by: RazorHawk on Jul 17, 06:04 in response to edzep - Port Monkey!'s post Never heard of that law, and, I'm no statistician. But,...

Law Of Large Numbers was taught to me years ago by another HSX Player who used to mentor me (but she called it the Law Of Big Numbers).


Basically, if you flip a coin there is 50% of it landing heads and 50% chance of it landing tails.


If you do a small amount of flips it would be easy to get a awkard amount of results (like 10 flips could get 3 tails and 7 heads).  The larger amount of times that you flip should get you a more even result (like 10,000 flips should be closer to 50% heads and 50% tails)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers


It has been my personal experience running my main port and funds, players that I have mentored, and players I have talked with over the years that 3 times a month seems the average.

I do not know the math to analyze your estimation or to correctly predict the probability.

Players might not be playing Classic Cash every day of the week, every day of the month, every day of the year, which I guess would change the chances and results. (Players get sick, go on vacation, travel, get HSX blocked at school or work, forget to play Classic Cash, run multiple ports (like YTD and/or Funds) and forget to do Classic Cash in each port daily, some players only do Classic Cash when they are in red for the day...)


If a player is only playing from work and does not do classic cash on the weekends, then they would be losing up to 2 days a week, up to 8 days a month, up to 104 days a year...?

I do not know about the math of these things... I know the probability of picking the correct Classic Cash seems like it is 1 in 7 on any given day, but does that probablity only count if you choose the same location each time.... does the probability change if you choose a different location each time (because that would be two moving variables vs one moving variable)?

 

Join RazorHawk's HSX School League and learn neat stuff like this (and lots of other weird stuff).

Classic Cash & You strange Jul 15, 14:29

Nope, doesn't work {nm} JDolphin Jul 15, 15:06

I always pick Sunset Blvd., just because {nm} daveart Jul 15, 15:13

Not always, I pick The Birds Every time and am lucky to win once a week...if that. {nm} aggie2145 Jul 15, 15:18

I always pock the {nm} gibster420 Jul 15, 23:30

I pick the 2nd one, failed 3 times in a row so should be due for a win soon! {nm} gibster420 Jul 15, 23:31

I once did an experiment and picked the last one 30 days straight and didn't win once {nm} JDolphin Jul 16, 02:08

once i won it 3 days in a row....i'll never see that kind of luck again...now if i win once a month i throw a party lol! {nm} horrorfanatic Jul 16, 13:11

Law Of Large Numbers says that you should be winning about 3x a month... RazorHawk Jul 16, 14:57

He have about a 1per chance3 to lose 30 times in a row {nm} mishra Jul 16, 15:24

Never heard of that law, and, I'm no statistician. But, shouldn't wins average out to 4x a month, with 1 in 7 chance each time? {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Jul 17, 04:31

It's basically just a law that says that given a large enough set of data (in this case, plays as Classic Cash), that the expected average.. Willroast Jul 17, 05:38

Yes - or 4.34523809524 per Month (on Average) to be a bit more Precise. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Jul 17, 05:39

OOPS - 6.46 is Average Number of Days for a Win. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Jul 17, 05:43

I'm no statistician either.... RazorHawk Jul 17, 06:04

To answer the end, 1 in 7 each day. {nm} DTravel Jul 17, 12:55

it should average out to that but if you know statistics....sometimes you could win 3 or 4 times in a row or go through steak of losing. {nm} mishra Jul 17, 14:38

It might be a fluke, but I seem to win more if I pick the first poster that pops up. {nm} avandelay Jul 17, 10:40





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