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I'm no statistician either....
Law Of Large Numbers was taught to me years ago by another HSX Player who used to mentor me (but she called it the Law Of Big Numbers).
Basically, if you flip a coin there is 50% of it landing heads and 50% chance of it landing tails.
If you do a small amount of flips it would be easy to get a awkard amount of results (like 10 flips could get 3 tails and 7 heads). The larger amount of times that you flip should get you a more even result (like 10,000 flips should be closer to 50% heads and 50% tails)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
It has been my personal experience running my main port and funds, players that I have mentored, and players I have talked with over the years that 3 times a month seems the average.
I do not know the math to analyze your estimation or to correctly predict the probability.
Players might not be playing Classic Cash every day of the week, every day of the month, every day of the year, which I guess would change the chances and results. (Players get sick, go on vacation, travel, get HSX blocked at school or work, forget to play Classic Cash, run multiple ports (like YTD and/or Funds) and forget to do Classic Cash in each port daily, some players only do Classic Cash when they are in red for the day...)
If a player is only playing from work and does not do classic cash on the weekends, then they would be losing up to 2 days a week, up to 8 days a month, up to 104 days a year...?
I do not know about the math of these things... I know the probability of picking the correct Classic Cash seems like it is 1 in 7 on any given day, but does that probablity only count if you choose the same location each time.... does the probability change if you choose a different location each time (because that would be two moving variables vs one moving variable)?
Join RazorHawk's HSX School League and learn neat stuff like this (and lots of other weird stuff).
Classic Cash & You Jul 15, 14:29
Nope, doesn't work {nm} Jul 15, 15:06
I always pick Sunset Blvd., just because {nm} Jul 15, 15:13
Not always, I pick The Birds Every time and am lucky to win once a week...if that. {nm} Jul 15, 15:18
I always pock the {nm} Jul 15, 23:30
I pick the 2nd one, failed 3 times in a row so should be due for a win soon! {nm} Jul 15, 23:31
I once did an experiment and picked the last one 30 days straight and didn't win once {nm} Jul 16, 02:08
once i won it 3 days in a row....i'll never see that kind of luck again...now if i win once a month i throw a party lol! {nm} Jul 16, 13:11
Law Of Large Numbers says that you should be winning about 3x a month... Jul 16, 14:57
He have about a 1per chance3 to lose 30 times in a row {nm} Jul 16, 15:24
Yes - or 4.34523809524 per Month (on Average) to be a bit more Precise. Jul 17, 05:39
OOPS - 6.46 is Average Number of Days for a Win. Jul 17, 05:43
I'm no statistician either.... Jul 17, 06:04
To answer the end, 1 in 7 each day. {nm} Jul 17, 12:55
It might be a fluke, but I seem to win more if I pick the first poster that pops up. {nm} Jul 17, 10:40
