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Playing & Trading Strategy

[FOXX] fund April outlook

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a FOXXFund) on Apr 01, 18:39

Since all the cool kids are doing fund reports, I figure I might as well do one too.  March was a good month for FOXX, but that was basically due to hitting the SMEKD jackpot and not down to any actual trading skill.  Even being the MTD leader is easy when your fund is lower in value than almost all the others.  So instead, I'm going to look at what I see coming up over the next month, and a little further ahead.

The next Fox movie is LNGST, which opens the weekend after next.  The movie has no star power, but it's a Nicholas Sparks movie. You can tell because it has a man and a woman looking at each other on the poster.  Four of the last five Nicholas Sparks movies have grossed opened at $16M or higher - though the exception, BESME, opened at $10m was also the latest one. I figure it's worth investing long for now.

Fox Searchlight is releasing TRUES and FFTMC in quick succession.  I've taken a punt on TRUES because it's cheap, it has recognisable stars and you never know.  FFTMC is a period drama based on a Thomas Hardy novel which can find an audience. I'll keep an eye on theatre counts and WOM for both.

Beyond that, POLTR and SPY are the big early summer releases from Fox. I can't help feeling "that's it?". I missed out on POLTR's recent up-surge, and now I'm thinking "A $25 million opening for a horror film on Memorial Day weekend seems high". Another reason I'm not confident is that I don't really understand horror and why some movies succeed and others fail - so should I take the chance? This one does have a scary clown though. Maybe I'll take the plunge if the price continues to go up - I can always get out later.

I think SPY looks terrible, but it has MMCCA who is unstoppable with her target audience, JLAW for eye candy and JSTAT so husbands won't feel embarrassed being dragged along to the movie. So I'm more confident in the movie, and have invested long.

More tactically, I'm going to focus on day-trading based on news. It involves keeping cash spare, but I think it will be more profitable than investing in moviestocks that are further out - particularly as Fox's big summer release is FANT4 (Have I mentioned Fox's summer schedule sucks?)

My goal for April is to overtake DISNX, which only has the super-expensive AVNG2 and 1952 on May, and catch up a little on WEINX - which doesn't have any May releases.  My other goal of actually watching a Fox movie this summer is probably going to go unfulfilled.


Tag(s): FOXX





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In The Land Of Saints And Sinner (ILSAS) 150000 1.75 (+0.18)          Abigail (ABGAL) 138907 60.06 (-0.18)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 10.31 (+0.35)          Sasquatch Sunset (SQTCH) 150000 7.89 (-0.23)          The Long Game (TLNGM) 150000 6.83 (-0.05)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 150000 2.48 (+0.01)          The Greatest Hits (GRTHT) 150000 1.85 (-0.02)          Knox Goes Away (KNOXG) 150000 1.71 (-0.02)          Spaceman (SPACM) 150000 0.17 (-0.02)          Sleeping Dogs (SDOGS) 150000 1.53 (-0.02)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 59.07 (+0.72)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.CA) 25000 3.01 (+0.14)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 130079 113.62 (+0.28)          SNL 1975 aka The Wolverines (SNL75) 62845 27.86 (-0.17)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 150000 23.10 (+0.03)          SNL 1975 aka The Wolverines (SNL75) 150000 27.86 (-0.17)          Here (HERE1) 26019 43.77 (-0.01)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.31 (-0.69)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 150000 2.36 (+0.01)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 2.67 (+0.21)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.31 (-0.69)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 149999 23.10 (+0.03)          Micronauts (MCRON) 50000 7.14 (+0.23)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 150000 17.56 (+0.85)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 150000 17.56 (+0.85)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.31 (-0.69)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 150000 155.54 (+1.71)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 150000 155.54 (+1.71)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.31 (-0.69)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.31 (-0.69)          The Monkey (MONKY) 5 21.65 (-0.07)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 23000 19.31 (-0.69)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 500 24.68 (+0.06)          Here (HERE1) 1 43.77 (-0.01)          Ray Gunn (RAYGN) 500 18.24 (+0.06)          Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 1 14.27 (-0.21)          Longlegs (LNLEG) 1 9.26 (-0.01)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 1 23.42 (-0.02)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 1 64.75 (+0.15)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 149999 2.67 (+0.21)          Tank Girl (TANKG) 150000 13.39 (+0.10)          Arcadian (ARCAD) 149999 1.96 (-0.01)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 79999 1.19 (-0.01)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 149999 2.36 (+0.01)          One Life (1LIFE) 149999 4.75 (-0.04)          Immaculate (IMACU) 99999 14.06 (-0.03)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Here (HERE1) 26019 43.77 (-0.01)