HSX Forums: Playing & Trading Strategy Board

[FOXX] fund April outlook

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a FOXXFund) on Apr 01, 18:39

Since all the cool kids are doing fund reports, I figure I might as well do one too.  March was a good month for FOXX, but that was basically due to hitting the SMEKD jackpot and not down to any actual trading skill.  Even being the MTD leader is easy when your fund is lower in value than almost all the others.  So instead, I'm going to look at what I see coming up over the next month, and a little further ahead.

The next Fox movie is LNGST, which opens the weekend after next.  The movie has no star power, but it's a Nicholas Sparks movie. You can tell because it has a man and a woman looking at each other on the poster.  Four of the last five Nicholas Sparks movies have grossed opened at $16M or higher - though the exception, BESME, opened at $10m was also the latest one. I figure it's worth investing long for now.

Fox Searchlight is releasing TRUES and FFTMC in quick succession.  I've taken a punt on TRUES because it's cheap, it has recognisable stars and you never know.  FFTMC is a period drama based on a Thomas Hardy novel which can find an audience. I'll keep an eye on theatre counts and WOM for both.

Beyond that, POLTR and SPY are the big early summer releases from Fox. I can't help feeling "that's it?". I missed out on POLTR's recent up-surge, and now I'm thinking "A $25 million opening for a horror film on Memorial Day weekend seems high". Another reason I'm not confident is that I don't really understand horror and why some movies succeed and others fail - so should I take the chance? This one does have a scary clown though. Maybe I'll take the plunge if the price continues to go up - I can always get out later.

I think SPY looks terrible, but it has MMCCA who is unstoppable with her target audience, JLAW for eye candy and JSTAT so husbands won't feel embarrassed being dragged along to the movie. So I'm more confident in the movie, and have invested long.

More tactically, I'm going to focus on day-trading based on news. It involves keeping cash spare, but I think it will be more profitable than investing in moviestocks that are further out - particularly as Fox's big summer release is FANT4 (Have I mentioned Fox's summer schedule sucks?)

My goal for April is to overtake DISNX, which only has the super-expensive AVNG2 and 1952 on May, and catch up a little on WEINX - which doesn't have any May releases.  My other goal of actually watching a Fox movie this summer is probably going to go unfulfilled.

Tag(s): FOXX

[FOXX] fund April outlook   Roger More on Apr 01, 18:39

Forward looking statements disclaimer ;)    Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin on Apr 01, 20:01

HA! Wow {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 01, 20:27

LOL! Had to get SOMETHING in for April Fool's day :D {nm}   Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin on Apr 01, 20:39

Very droll. {nm}   Roger More on Apr 02, 06:56

Yeah, pretty much a form we use for earnings reports - almost universal ;) {nm}   Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin on Apr 02, 19:58

Good luck FOXX! {nm}   Universal 100 Fund on Apr 01, 20:37

Sweet. Have you read the early 'Spy' reviews?   Qix on Apr 02, 02:28

Wow. I'm surprised. Not because of the movie, but because of critics dislike of comedies sometimes {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 02, 06:00

Thanks - that's certainly reassuring. And SCOPR/MMCCA are certainly aimed at an audience segment that don't get many movies made for them {nm}   Roger More on Apr 02, 07:03

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