Market Announcement: AwardOptions for the Oscar nominees are now trading.

HSX Forums: Movies Board

what do you mean 'whoa'? You think it's a HIGH estimate ??? {nm}

Posted by: SequelsFund on Apr 25, 10:44 in response to secretstalker's post MTC: FFUR5 78 (whoa!), PROM 10, Hoodwinked 8, Dylan Dog 3

MTC: FFUR5 78 (whoa!), PROM 10, Hoodwinked 8, Dylan Dog 3 {nm}   secretstalker on Apr 25, 10:42

what do you mean 'whoa'? You think it's a HIGH estimate ??? {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 10:44

he definitely is surprised :) .... however i think Fast Five has commedable amount of buzz for a ripping opening... {nm}   b4bad on Apr 25, 11:29

If this number is realistic, then several of the attached star bonds don't really reflect it yet (whereas a few more or less do). {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:41

That depends. If this number is realistic, nothing says the movie has any legs. {nm}   ty97 on Apr 25, 11:44

Very true {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:50

According to the formula that means Fast 5 should open well above 78 mil right? {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 10:46

That's the "rule" and 78 is well above 60. {nm}   secretstalker on Apr 25, 10:54

let me rephrase the question; Do YOU think it's a high estimate. ( I think it is. Ridicolously high ! ) {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 11:16

Why? Can you break it down in numbers, and support your notion with comparisons, referance to weekend potential in general, etc? {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:24

(just curious - cause if one feels as strongly about a figure, there must be some rational reason somewhere - and then it should be possible   Facto on Apr 25, 11:26

I posted some numbers below your previous post asking about theaters counts facto {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:28

Thanks - I see it now {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:38

I think I can explain my reasoning on this vindiesel/carhitmovie. But let´s do these things in a certain order ) Secret may answer first {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 11:35

Why does SS need to offer his opinion before you give a reasoning on why you think it's 'ridiculously high'. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 11:44

because - woooow... this FF5 thread could be the biggest ever in recent hsx-history - but still; because....   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 12:08

SS is not obligated to offer an 'opinion'. But you volunteered your opinion and we're curious to your reasoning. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 12:15

???   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 12:23

The discussion is movies and you say you said you can explain your reasoning re FFUR5. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 12:34

offcourse I can. But at what point do I have to ? I prefer to wait for SS-answer, as I stated before. I feel you are pressuring me to...   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 12:53

So 74 million is doable, but 78 million is high. Gotcha. :) {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 13:04

No you don't. 74 is way too high. But that's my humble opininon. What's yours ? :-) {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 13:20

no way in hell it does that. just my opinion, though {nm}   ndmaster on Apr 25, 10:52

I saw the trailer in a movie theatre on Saturday - it does look quite good. If people are hungry for a blockbuster popcorn flick right about   Facto on Apr 25, 11:00

I think the trailers look awesome {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:13

I was hoping for plus 75 for FFUR5. I love my, I love my, I love my MTC {nm}   MTC your my hero on Apr 25, 10:52

78? Thanks MTC, I needed a good laugh! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 10:55

it has been out opening the last one in every territory so unless the bo malaise is unique to US... {nm}   notfabio on Apr 25, 11:03

We'll see. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll happily eat my crow if I'm wrong, but..   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:08

WoW really?? Is that because of the movie or how the market has been? {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:14

BO has been down and it's not summer. I don't think TROCK is that much of a draw. Having original cast helps, though. {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:18

BO has been down because the movie selection year-to-date has sucked. That changes this weekend. {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 11:20

I can't see anything breaking out until maybe PIRT4. I know FFUR4 did 70m in April of 2009, but it was the only new movie and there wasn't   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:30

But you are basing all this on pure instinct/gut.. ? Can you break it down in numbers, please?   Facto on Apr 25, 11:31

What numbers do you want? Just because a seuqel comes out and MTC goes ga-ga over it, doesn't make it true. Just look at IRNM2. {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:37

What was MTC on IRNM2? IRNM2 opened at $128M, higher than IRMN at $102M. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 11:41

I have MTC at 150 for IRNM2 {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:42

By that measure, MTC is conservative with this sequel... {nm}   Catzan on Apr 25, 11:46

I found it now, too - posted by notfabio on May 3, 2010   Facto on Apr 25, 11:50

Searching and haven't found it yet - found the MTC for the weekend after.. {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:47

Woah.. What competition is this movie gonna have?? Dylan Dogg? Hoodwinked?? {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:33

There wasn't a kids movie like RIO this time last year. Only down 31% from opening weekend, that will take away some biz from FFUR5 {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:36

I doubt it overlaps much. Urban audiences go for Rio over OW Fast 5? Don't see it. Blockbuster auds already saw Rio, mostly, I'd think.   Facto on Apr 25, 11:40

and we are looking at a PG-13 flick and a G rated movie {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:42

We'll see! Either way I hope it makes me some H$! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:43

Thats the important thing {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:44

Monsters Vs. Aliens competed against the last FFUR. I think that one is relevant. My opinion on #4 is that they really did a good job in    Catzan on Apr 25, 11:45

Everyone here is making good points!    eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:48

Call it a gut instinct then. That's about all I can say! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:49

lol...who needs a gut when halt is on Saturdays usually. ;-) {nm}   Catzan on Apr 25, 11:53

And not just Saturdays but saturday evening..... well for reg stock {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:54

EXACTLY! I hope it either bombs or breaks out b/c I will be right there making profits! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:55

I think last years F&F could have down well more than almost 71 mil if not for Monsters Vs Aliens.    Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:49

this, I think (hope) {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 12:06

And looking back at this time last year, there were a LOT of shorts... {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:23

May I suggest that you go back two years, and calculate what you would've lost if you went short on Fast 4?    Facto on Apr 25, 11:29

Don't have records that far back. What did it halt at? {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:31

Less than 130, it seems - adjusted to 195 {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:36

I think that may be a lil high for dylan dogg IMO. Thats 3000 per theatre. {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 10:59

LMFAO @ 78. Way off. {nm}   stevenj1127 on Apr 25, 11:00

Fast and Furious 2 years ago took (almost) everyone here on HSX by surprise. Do you remember? {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:01

Why is that so way off? BO was saying 70mil and that was before the weekend showing what a breakout Fast 5 is having overseas. {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:01

I can imagine that there's some "cognitive dissonance" in effect, here(?)   Facto on Apr 25, 11:09

Last week Antibody posted that Fast5 could get 3500+   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:20

My 2011 Easter though for you... maybe don't put all your eggs in one basket {nm}   JMT-NL on Apr 25, 11:27

lol oh i don't {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:28

I put all my Easter eggs in the same burlap sack. They were fine. {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 11:54

While it's high, I too am confused why everyone is laughing. 70 for the last one + the addition of The Rock + like last time, no competition   dsbman on Apr 25, 11:08

Also, IMAX, which will inflate prices even more. {nm}   dsbman on Apr 25, 11:09

The Rocks popularity has been on the rise with his return to doing promos at WWE. I'm sure he's gonna bring in quite a few fans too. {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:09

Yeah, I don't get it. It may or may not be a bit high, but in no way is it laughably so. {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 11:21

Much to Thor's chagrin, this is also the first 'Summer Movie' ("April" be damned)   ty97 on Apr 25, 11:21

Looking at last years F&F movie numbers and theater counts its definitely doable {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:23

Even if you take 2 FAST 2 FURIOUS' number and account for inflation + an IMAX bump, you're looking at around $68m minimum. In no way is 78   dsbman on Apr 25, 11:32

Wrong movie. Look at Fast & Furious from 2009 not 2 fast 2 furious {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:36

Fast and Furious 2009...   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:41

Read your post wrong dsbman. Thought u were saying 78 was laughable. my bad {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:55

Tagging [FFUR5], [PROM], [DEADN], [HDWN2]. {nm}   accountant_4_Jesus on Apr 27, 00:26

Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

A9: Bradley Cooper - A Star Is B (A9ABCO) 20000 5.28 (+0.01)         A9: Amy Adams - Vice - Sup Actre (A9SAAD) 20000 3.30 (0.00)         Molly aka Untitled Sally Potter (MOLY1) 100000 6.92 (-0.16)         Minamata (MINAM) 5500 6.05 (+1.88)         Margaret Qualley (MQUAL) 20000 10.62 (0.00)         A9: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapso (A9ARMA) 20000 11.28 (+0.03)         Tyler Perry (TPERR) 20000 40.16 (+0.32)         Lucy in the Sky aka Pale Blue Do (PBDOT) 100000 11.67 (-0.45)         A9: Amy Adams - Vice - Sup Actre (A9SAAD) 20000 3.30 (0.00)         A9: Mahershala Ali - Green Book (A9RMAL) 20000 11.85 (-0.04)         Imogen Poots (IPOOT) 20000 1.72 (+0.03)         A9: Emma Stone - The Favourite - (A9SEST) 20000 3.24 (+0.02)         Neil Jordan (NJORD) 20000 7.96 (+0.04)         Motherless Brooklyn (MOBRK) 100000 18.43 (-1.70)         Gemma Arterton (GARTE) 20000 7.23 (0.00)         A9: Sam Rockwell - Vice - Sup Ac (A9RSRO) 20000 2.65 (-0.04)         Rachel Weisz (RWEIS) 20000 7.74 (-0.12)         A9: Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman (A9RADR) 20000 3.18 (-0.05)         Untitled Christopher Nolan (UCNOL) 100000 85.16 (+5.16)         Untitled Christopher Nolan (UCNOL) 25000 85.16 (+5.16)         Machete Kills Again In Space (MCHT3) 100000 4.33 (-1.12)         A9: Lady Gaga - A Star is Born - (A9CLGA) 20000 3.64 (+0.01)         A9: Melissa McCarthy - Can You E (A9CMMC) 20000 3.42 (-0.01)         A9: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's (A9AWDA) 20000 2.74 (-0.05)         A9: Green Book - Picture (A9PGRN) 20000 5.57 (+0.02)         Octavia Spencer (OSPEN) 20000 42.59 (-0.53)         A9: Viggo Mortensen - Green Book (A9AVMO) 20000 3.09 (+0.04)         Tate Taylor (TTAYL) 20000 74.79 (-0.40)         Tim Story (TSTOR) 20000 70.21 (-0.80)         A9: Roma - Picture (A9PROM) 20000 6.43 (0.00)         A9: Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favou (A9DYLA) 20000 3.78 (-0.02)         Suraj Sharma (SSHAR) 20000 50.88 (-0.53)         A9: Paweł Pawlikowski - Cold Wa (A9DPPA) 20000 2.98 (-0.02)         A9: Roma - Picture (A9PROM) 20000 6.43 (0.00)         Michelle Yeoh (MYEOH) 20000 71.17 (+0.26)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 100000 19.17 (-0.02)         A9: Adam McKay - Vice - Director (A9DAMC) 20000 3.10 (0.00)         Ron Howard (RHOWA) 20000 51.79 (+0.40)         A9: Black Panther - Picture (A9PBPN) 20000 2.64 (-0.02)         Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (YABDU) 20000 117.77 (+0.28)         Benedict Cumberbatch (BCUMB) 20000 187.77 (+1.15)         A9: Black Panther - Picture (A9PBPN) 20000 2.64 (-0.02)         Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 20000 65.87 (0.00)         Happy Death Day 2U (HDTH2) 4228 29.33 (-0.04)         Jack Reynor (JREYN) 20000 10.03 (+0.12)         Eddie Marsan (EMARS) 20000 70.88 (+0.79)         The Lovebirds (LVBRD) 100000 22.79 (+1.58)         Sarah Paulson (SPAUL) 20000 61.36 (0.00)         Untitled Christopher Nolan (UCNOL) 100000 85.16 (+5.16)         After (AFTR1) 100000 23.90 (-1.07)