Market Announcement: AwardOptions will halt trading at 1 p.m. Pacific on Sunday, February 24th.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






Why does SS need to offer his opinion before you give a reasoning on why you think it's 'ridiculously high'. {nm}

Posted by: Antibody on Apr 25, 11:44 in response to SequelsFund's post I think I can explain my reasoning on this...

MTC: FFUR5 78 (whoa!), PROM 10, Hoodwinked 8, Dylan Dog 3 {nm}   secretstalker on Apr 25, 10:42

what do you mean 'whoa'? You think it's a HIGH estimate ??? {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 10:44

he definitely is surprised :) .... however i think Fast Five has commedable amount of buzz for a ripping opening... {nm}   b4bad on Apr 25, 11:29

If this number is realistic, then several of the attached star bonds don't really reflect it yet (whereas a few more or less do). {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:41

That depends. If this number is realistic, nothing says the movie has any legs. {nm}   ty97 on Apr 25, 11:44

Very true {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:50

According to the formula that means Fast 5 should open well above 78 mil right? {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 10:46

That's the "rule" and 78 is well above 60. {nm}   secretstalker on Apr 25, 10:54

let me rephrase the question; Do YOU think it's a high estimate. ( I think it is. Ridicolously high ! ) {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 11:16

Why? Can you break it down in numbers, and support your notion with comparisons, referance to weekend potential in general, etc? {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:24

(just curious - cause if one feels as strongly about a figure, there must be some rational reason somewhere - and then it should be possible   Facto on Apr 25, 11:26

I posted some numbers below your previous post asking about theaters counts facto {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:28

Thanks - I see it now {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:38

I think I can explain my reasoning on this vindiesel/carhitmovie. But let´s do these things in a certain order ) Secret may answer first {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 11:35

Why does SS need to offer his opinion before you give a reasoning on why you think it's 'ridiculously high'. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 11:44

because - woooow... this FF5 thread could be the biggest ever in recent hsx-history - but still; because....   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 12:08

SS is not obligated to offer an 'opinion'. But you volunteered your opinion and we're curious to your reasoning. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 12:15

???   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 12:23

The discussion is movies and you say you said you can explain your reasoning re FFUR5. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 12:34

offcourse I can. But at what point do I have to ? I prefer to wait for SS-answer, as I stated before. I feel you are pressuring me to...   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 12:53

So 74 million is doable, but 78 million is high. Gotcha. :) {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 13:04

No you don't. 74 is way too high. But that's my humble opininon. What's yours ? :-) {nm}   SequelsFund on Apr 25, 13:20

no way in hell it does that. just my opinion, though {nm}   ndmaster on Apr 25, 10:52

I saw the trailer in a movie theatre on Saturday - it does look quite good. If people are hungry for a blockbuster popcorn flick right about   Facto on Apr 25, 11:00

I think the trailers look awesome {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:13

I was hoping for plus 75 for FFUR5. I love my, I love my, I love my MTC {nm}   MTC your my hero on Apr 25, 10:52

78? Thanks MTC, I needed a good laugh! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 10:55

it has been out opening the last one in every territory so unless the bo malaise is unique to US... {nm}   notfabio on Apr 25, 11:03

We'll see. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll happily eat my crow if I'm wrong, but..   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:08

WoW really?? Is that because of the movie or how the market has been? {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:14

BO has been down and it's not summer. I don't think TROCK is that much of a draw. Having original cast helps, though. {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:18

BO has been down because the movie selection year-to-date has sucked. That changes this weekend. {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 11:20

I can't see anything breaking out until maybe PIRT4. I know FFUR4 did 70m in April of 2009, but it was the only new movie and there wasn't   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:30

But you are basing all this on pure instinct/gut.. ? Can you break it down in numbers, please?   Facto on Apr 25, 11:31

What numbers do you want? Just because a seuqel comes out and MTC goes ga-ga over it, doesn't make it true. Just look at IRNM2. {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:37

What was MTC on IRNM2? IRNM2 opened at $128M, higher than IRMN at $102M. {nm}   Antibody on Apr 25, 11:41

I have MTC at 150 for IRNM2 {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:42

By that measure, MTC is conservative with this sequel... {nm}   Catzan on Apr 25, 11:46

I found it now, too - posted by notfabio on May 3, 2010   Facto on Apr 25, 11:50

Searching and haven't found it yet - found the MTC for the weekend after.. {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:47

Woah.. What competition is this movie gonna have?? Dylan Dogg? Hoodwinked?? {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:33

There wasn't a kids movie like RIO this time last year. Only down 31% from opening weekend, that will take away some biz from FFUR5 {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:36

I doubt it overlaps much. Urban audiences go for Rio over OW Fast 5? Don't see it. Blockbuster auds already saw Rio, mostly, I'd think.   Facto on Apr 25, 11:40

and we are looking at a PG-13 flick and a G rated movie {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:42

We'll see! Either way I hope it makes me some H$! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:43

Thats the important thing {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:44

Monsters Vs. Aliens competed against the last FFUR. I think that one is relevant. My opinion on #4 is that they really did a good job in    Catzan on Apr 25, 11:45

Everyone here is making good points!    eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:48

Call it a gut instinct then. That's about all I can say! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:49

lol...who needs a gut when halt is on Saturdays usually. ;-) {nm}   Catzan on Apr 25, 11:53

And not just Saturdays but saturday evening..... well for reg stock {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:54

EXACTLY! I hope it either bombs or breaks out b/c I will be right there making profits! {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:55

I think last years F&F could have down well more than almost 71 mil if not for Monsters Vs Aliens.    Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:49

this, I think (hope) {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 12:06

And looking back at this time last year, there were a LOT of shorts... {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:23

May I suggest that you go back two years, and calculate what you would've lost if you went short on Fast 4?    Facto on Apr 25, 11:29

Don't have records that far back. What did it halt at? {nm}   eyescovered on Apr 25, 11:31

Less than 130, it seems - adjusted to 195 {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:36

I think that may be a lil high for dylan dogg IMO. Thats 3000 per theatre. {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 10:59

LMFAO @ 78. Way off. {nm}   stevenj1127 on Apr 25, 11:00

Fast and Furious 2 years ago took (almost) everyone here on HSX by surprise. Do you remember? {nm}   Facto on Apr 25, 11:01

Why is that so way off? BO was saying 70mil and that was before the weekend showing what a breakout Fast 5 is having overseas. {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:01

I can imagine that there's some "cognitive dissonance" in effect, here(?)   Facto on Apr 25, 11:09

Last week Antibody posted that Fast5 could get 3500+   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:20

My 2011 Easter though for you... maybe don't put all your eggs in one basket {nm}   JMT-NL on Apr 25, 11:27

lol oh i don't {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:28

I put all my Easter eggs in the same burlap sack. They were fine. {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 11:54

While it's high, I too am confused why everyone is laughing. 70 for the last one + the addition of The Rock + like last time, no competition   dsbman on Apr 25, 11:08

Also, IMAX, which will inflate prices even more. {nm}   dsbman on Apr 25, 11:09

The Rocks popularity has been on the rise with his return to doing promos at WWE. I'm sure he's gonna bring in quite a few fans too. {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:09

Yeah, I don't get it. It may or may not be a bit high, but in no way is it laughably so. {nm}   BionicMoron on Apr 25, 11:21

Much to Thor's chagrin, this is also the first 'Summer Movie' ("April" be damned)   ty97 on Apr 25, 11:21

Looking at last years F&F movie numbers and theater counts its definitely doable {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:23

Even if you take 2 FAST 2 FURIOUS' number and account for inflation + an IMAX bump, you're looking at around $68m minimum. In no way is 78   dsbman on Apr 25, 11:32

Wrong movie. Look at Fast & Furious from 2009 not 2 fast 2 furious {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:36

Fast and Furious 2009...   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:41

Read your post wrong dsbman. Thought u were saying 78 was laughable. my bad {nm}   Dorfman on Apr 25, 11:55

Tagging [FFUR5], [PROM], [DEADN], [HDWN2]. {nm}   accountant_4_Jesus on Apr 27, 00:26





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Mark Rylance (MRYLA) 10000 69.83 (-0.13)         Poms (POMS) 34342 34.19 (+4.64)         Logan Marshall-Green (LMARS) 7500 52.03 (-0.54)         6 Underground (6UNDG) 99960 6.38 (+0.15)         Now You See Me 3 (NYSM3) 1745 9.98 (-0.02)         Logan Marshall-Green (LMARS) 17500 52.03 (-0.54)         Fast & Furious 9 (FAST9) 4000 164.28 (-0.66)         Once Upon a Time in Staten Islan (THNIT) 1000 13.72 (-0.64)         Ioan Gruffudd (IGRUF) 10000 53.33 (-0.34)         Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & (FAFHS) 4000 180.84 (-0.22)         The Brink (TBRNK) 44000 1.62 (-0.18)         On the Rocks (ONROC) 20215 17.66 (-0.44)         Logan Marshall-Green (LMARS) 10000 52.03 (-0.54)         Captain Marvel (CMARV) 100000 281.32 (+4.92)         Ghostbusters Untitled (GHST4) 16000 90.61 (+1.46)         Mark Strong (MSTRO) 10000 46.38 (-0.53)         Tom and Jerry (TMJRY) 1 49.03 (+4.84)         Tom and Jerry (TMJRY) 1 49.03 (+4.84)         Bad Boys For Lif3 (BADB3) 4000 103.29 (-1.00)         Arctic Dogs (AJTS) 1 12.79 (-0.05)         Arctic Dogs (AJTS) 1 12.79 (-0.05)         Ioan Gruffudd (IGRUF) 10000 53.33 (-0.34)         The Last Purge (PURG5) 3670 39.33 (-0.70)         Minamata (MINAM) 100000 6.00 (+0.57)         Vanessa Hudgens (VHUDG) 10000 16.73 (-0.07)         Minamata (MINAM) 99999 6.00 (+0.57)         Abominable (EVERS) 99900 40.56 (+3.69)         Untitled Judd Apatow / Pete Davi (UPDAV) 700 29.90 (+4.90)         Lucy in the Sky aka Pale Blue Do (PBDOT) 1 11.29 (-0.11)         Ioan Gruffudd (IGRUF) 10000 53.33 (-0.34)         Lucy in the Sky aka Pale Blue Do (PBDOT) 1 11.29 (-0.11)         Cruella (CRULA) 1 47.10 (+0.33)         Cruella (CRULA) 1 47.10 (+0.33)         Untitled Judd Apatow / Pete Davi (UPDAV) 100 29.90 (+4.90)         Untitled Judd Apatow / Pete Davi (UPDAV) 1 29.90 (+4.90)         The Prodigy (PRDGY) 2222 14.31 (+0.05)         Untitled Judd Apatow / Pete Davi (UPDAV) 1 29.90 (+4.90)         Miss Bala (MISSB) 1 15.78 (-0.17)         Mark Strong (MSTRO) 10000 46.38 (-0.53)         Miss Bala (MISSB) 1 15.78 (-0.17)         Awkwafina (AWKWA) 2 102.57 (+0.57)         Bush aka Toff Guys (TOFFG) 1 30.00 (+2.07)         Bush aka Toff Guys (TOFFG) 1 30.00 (+2.07)         Tom and Jerry (TMJRY) 99900 49.03 (+4.84)         Merlin (MERLN) 559 34.68 (-1.44)         Motherless Brooklyn (MOBRK) 1 25.20 (-0.43)         Motherless Brooklyn (MOBRK) 1 25.20 (-0.43)         Dune (DUNE) 1 103.84 (+0.23)         Untitled Judd Apatow / Pete Davi (UPDAV) 5000 29.90 (+4.90)         Dune (DUNE) 1 103.84 (+0.23)