HSX Forums: Movies Board
What was MTC on IRNM2? IRNM2 opened at $128M, higher than IRMN at $102M. {nm}
MTC: FFUR5 78 (whoa!), PROM 10, Hoodwinked 8, Dylan Dog 3 {nm} on Apr 25, 10:42
what do you mean 'whoa'? You think it's a HIGH estimate ??? {nm} on Apr 25, 10:44
he definitely is surprised :) .... however i think Fast Five has commedable amount of buzz for a ripping opening... {nm} on Apr 25, 11:29
If this number is realistic, then several of the attached star bonds don't really reflect it yet (whereas a few more or less do). {nm} on Apr 25, 11:41
That depends. If this number is realistic, nothing says the movie has any legs. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:44
Very true {nm} on Apr 25, 11:50
According to the formula that means Fast 5 should open well above 78 mil right? {nm} on Apr 25, 10:46
That's the "rule" and 78 is well above 60. {nm} on Apr 25, 10:54
let me rephrase the question; Do YOU think it's a high estimate. ( I think it is. Ridicolously high ! ) {nm} on Apr 25, 11:16
Why? Can you break it down in numbers, and support your notion with comparisons, referance to weekend potential in general, etc? {nm} on Apr 25, 11:24
(just curious - cause if one feels as strongly about a figure, there must be some rational reason somewhere - and then it should be possible on Apr 25, 11:26
I posted some numbers below your previous post asking about theaters counts facto {nm} on Apr 25, 11:28
Thanks - I see it now {nm} on Apr 25, 11:38
I think I can explain my reasoning on this vindiesel/carhitmovie. But let´s do these things in a certain order ) Secret may answer first {nm} on Apr 25, 11:35
Why does SS need to offer his opinion before you give a reasoning on why you think it's 'ridiculously high'. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:44
because - woooow... this FF5 thread could be the biggest ever in recent hsx-history - but still; because.... on Apr 25, 12:08
SS is not obligated to offer an 'opinion'. But you volunteered your opinion and we're curious to your reasoning. {nm} on Apr 25, 12:15
??? on Apr 25, 12:23
The discussion is movies and you say you said you can explain your reasoning re FFUR5. {nm} on Apr 25, 12:34
offcourse I can. But at what point do I have to ? I prefer to wait for SS-answer, as I stated before. I feel you are pressuring me to... on Apr 25, 12:53
So 74 million is doable, but 78 million is high. Gotcha. :) {nm} on Apr 25, 13:04
No you don't. 74 is way too high. But that's my humble opininon. What's yours ? :-) {nm} on Apr 25, 13:20
no way in hell it does that. just my opinion, though {nm} on Apr 25, 10:52
I saw the trailer in a movie theatre on Saturday - it does look quite good. If people are hungry for a blockbuster popcorn flick right about on Apr 25, 11:00
I think the trailers look awesome {nm} on Apr 25, 11:13
I was hoping for plus 75 for FFUR5. I love my, I love my, I love my MTC {nm} on Apr 25, 10:52
78? Thanks MTC, I needed a good laugh! {nm} on Apr 25, 10:55
it has been out opening the last one in every territory so unless the bo malaise is unique to US... {nm} on Apr 25, 11:03
We'll see. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll happily eat my crow if I'm wrong, but.. on Apr 25, 11:08
WoW really?? Is that because of the movie or how the market has been? {nm} on Apr 25, 11:14
BO has been down and it's not summer. I don't think TROCK is that much of a draw. Having original cast helps, though. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:18
BO has been down because the movie selection year-to-date has sucked. That changes this weekend. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:20
I can't see anything breaking out until maybe PIRT4. I know FFUR4 did 70m in April of 2009, but it was the only new movie and there wasn't on Apr 25, 11:30
But you are basing all this on pure instinct/gut.. ? Can you break it down in numbers, please? on Apr 25, 11:31
What numbers do you want? Just because a seuqel comes out and MTC goes ga-ga over it, doesn't make it true. Just look at IRNM2. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:37
What was MTC on IRNM2? IRNM2 opened at $128M, higher than IRMN at $102M. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:41
I have MTC at 150 for IRNM2 {nm} on Apr 25, 11:42
By that measure, MTC is conservative with this sequel... {nm} on Apr 25, 11:46
I found it now, too - posted by notfabio on May 3, 2010 on Apr 25, 11:50
Searching and haven't found it yet - found the MTC for the weekend after.. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:47
Woah.. What competition is this movie gonna have?? Dylan Dogg? Hoodwinked?? {nm} on Apr 25, 11:33
There wasn't a kids movie like RIO this time last year. Only down 31% from opening weekend, that will take away some biz from FFUR5 {nm} on Apr 25, 11:36
I doubt it overlaps much. Urban audiences go for Rio over OW Fast 5? Don't see it. Blockbuster auds already saw Rio, mostly, I'd think. on Apr 25, 11:40
and we are looking at a PG-13 flick and a G rated movie {nm} on Apr 25, 11:42
We'll see! Either way I hope it makes me some H$! {nm} on Apr 25, 11:43
Thats the important thing {nm} on Apr 25, 11:44
Monsters Vs. Aliens competed against the last FFUR. I think that one is relevant. My opinion on #4 is that they really did a good job in on Apr 25, 11:45
Everyone here is making good points! on Apr 25, 11:48
Call it a gut instinct then. That's about all I can say! {nm} on Apr 25, 11:49
lol...who needs a gut when halt is on Saturdays usually. ;-) {nm} on Apr 25, 11:53
And not just Saturdays but saturday evening..... well for reg stock {nm} on Apr 25, 11:54
EXACTLY! I hope it either bombs or breaks out b/c I will be right there making profits! {nm} on Apr 25, 11:55
I think last years F&F could have down well more than almost 71 mil if not for Monsters Vs Aliens. on Apr 25, 11:49
this, I think (hope) {nm} on Apr 25, 12:06
And looking back at this time last year, there were a LOT of shorts... {nm} on Apr 25, 11:23
May I suggest that you go back two years, and calculate what you would've lost if you went short on Fast 4? on Apr 25, 11:29
Don't have records that far back. What did it halt at? {nm} on Apr 25, 11:31
Less than 130, it seems - adjusted to 195 {nm} on Apr 25, 11:36
I think that may be a lil high for dylan dogg IMO. Thats 3000 per theatre. {nm} on Apr 25, 10:59
LMFAO @ 78. Way off. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:00
Fast and Furious 2 years ago took (almost) everyone here on HSX by surprise. Do you remember? {nm} on Apr 25, 11:01
Why is that so way off? BO was saying 70mil and that was before the weekend showing what a breakout Fast 5 is having overseas. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:01
I can imagine that there's some "cognitive dissonance" in effect, here(?) on Apr 25, 11:09
Last week Antibody posted that Fast5 could get 3500+ on Apr 25, 11:20
My 2011 Easter though for you... maybe don't put all your eggs in one basket {nm} on Apr 25, 11:27
lol oh i don't {nm} on Apr 25, 11:28
I put all my Easter eggs in the same burlap sack. They were fine. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:54
While it's high, I too am confused why everyone is laughing. 70 for the last one + the addition of The Rock + like last time, no competition on Apr 25, 11:08
Also, IMAX, which will inflate prices even more. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:09
The Rocks popularity has been on the rise with his return to doing promos at WWE. I'm sure he's gonna bring in quite a few fans too. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:09
Yeah, I don't get it. It may or may not be a bit high, but in no way is it laughably so. {nm} on Apr 25, 11:21
Much to Thor's chagrin, this is also the first 'Summer Movie' ("April" be damned) on Apr 25, 11:21
Looking at last years F&F movie numbers and theater counts its definitely doable {nm} on Apr 25, 11:23
Even if you take 2 FAST 2 FURIOUS' number and account for inflation + an IMAX bump, you're looking at around $68m minimum. In no way is 78 on Apr 25, 11:32
Wrong movie. Look at Fast & Furious from 2009 not 2 fast 2 furious {nm} on Apr 25, 11:36
Fast and Furious 2009... on Apr 25, 11:41
Read your post wrong dsbman. Thought u were saying 78 was laughable. my bad {nm} on Apr 25, 11:55
Tagging [FFUR5], [PROM], [DEADN], [HDWN2]. {nm} on Apr 27, 00:26