HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
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THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
I don't put a TON of stock in these numbers, but it's hard to imagine 300 is doing anything in the 20's given the "Want to See" numbers...
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/300_rise_of_an_empire/
There are 85,000+ there. Seems like a lot of interest, that's ridiculously high (in comparison to many other films).
I remember a few years back somebody used to track those numbers and for every 1000 they estimated 1M in OW. It held like that for a long time according to their tracking. I started following it as well and many times it proved to be pretty accurate. It doesn't work on childrens films IMO and action films skew high numbers as well.
I don't care as much anymore, so I only look it over when I'm really interested in a movie coming out's estimated potential. The last one I looked at was Robocop. I want to say it was just above 50K. It opened on a Wednesday, so it didn't really come close, but over half.
If Xerxe gets half the numbers in millions, that put's it in a low 40s OW. At this point with tracking estimates and those numbers above, anything below 30M would feel like a letdown (to m)e. 21M, well if it opens anywhere close to that I'm going to call you a genius, because you're seeing something many aren't.
I'll admit, early this year and late last year the film felt like it was going to under-perform. Right now I just don't get that feeling. This movie is being advertised everywhere. 40M - 50M at this point wouldn't be shocking at all.
Peabody has always felt like a 30M opener to me, and it still does (roughly).
I say this with nothing but respect for you Shawn. It's going to be an interesting weekend.
NF: Big 3D wkd ahead with both '300: Rise Of An Empire' (WB) and 'Mr. Peabody & Sherman' (DWA/Fox) targeting $50M. Mar 05, 20:34
Everything Is Awesome! {nm} Mar 05, 20:38
More likely to do $50m combined than $50m each, in my lil ol' opinion. {nm} Mar 05, 20:59
I never understood the low numbers for 300 at the beginning. The original opened with 70 million. The original was all action, Mar 05, 21:42
Also; it's pretty dreadful. Like a Cinemax after dark for the sword and sandal set. Paritcularly funny with the sound off. Mar 06, 08:53
IDK, there's been other numbers pointing to $40m+ for 300. Not sure about the other one, though. {nm} Mar 05, 22:59
Opening at 40M still puts the stock after adjustment at 108 or so.. {nm} Mar 06, 09:16
I hope you are right. I just threw down a drunk 100 to my fav new zealeander that it wouldn't break 50 {nm} Mar 06, 00:42
I would say your 100 is safe, cant see it passing 50M, then again...who knows?? {nm} Mar 06, 00:46
I don't put a TON of stock in these numbers, but it's hard to imagine 300 is doing anything in the 20's given the "Want to See" numbers... Mar 06, 05:58