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I don't put a TON of stock in these numbers, but it's hard to imagine 300 is doing anything in the 20's given the "Want to See" numbers...

Posted by: lobogotti on Mar 06, 05:58 in response to ShawnMR's post More likely to do $50m combined than $50m each, in my lil...

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/300_rise_of_an_empire/

There are 85,000+ there.  Seems like a lot of interest, that's ridiculously high (in comparison to many other films).

I remember a few years back somebody used to track those numbers and for every 1000 they estimated 1M in OW.  It held like that for a long time according to their tracking.  I started following it as well and many times it proved to be pretty accurate.  It doesn't work on childrens films IMO and action films skew high numbers as well.

I don't care as much anymore, so I only look it over when I'm really interested in a movie coming out's estimated potential.  The last one I looked at was Robocop.  I want to say it was just above 50K. It opened on a Wednesday, so it didn't really come close, but over half.

If Xerxe gets half the numbers in millions, that put's it in a low 40s OW.  At this point with tracking estimates and those numbers above, anything below 30M would feel like a letdown (to m)e.  21M, well if it opens anywhere close to that I'm going to call you a genius, because you're seeing something many aren't. 

I'll admit, early this year and late last year the film felt like it was going to under-perform.  Right now I just don't get that feeling.  This movie is being advertised everywhere.  40M - 50M at this point wouldn't be shocking at all. 

Peabody has always felt like a 30M opener to me, and it still does (roughly).

I say this with nothing but respect for you Shawn.  It's going to be an interesting weekend.





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