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IMO, Alice will have trouble with $250M (if even that). this film did well because people were thirsty for a Disney Live action at that time
and Johnny Depp was in higher demand. fans were both equally happy for the Alice property and Depps "return" to greatness. then the film opened. and though it had decent weekend holds, they could have been much higher (pay attention to Jungles next two weekend).
the film didn't even get a 3x multiplier off the OW through its domestic run. Jungle Book will open $10-13M less and it will outgross it.
the critics panned it and when the dust settled the audience agreed:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1221547-alice_in_wonderland/
you won't fool them into a $115M+ OW this time. I doubt there's a story in place enough people will be interested in. it's going to take insane reviews, great performances and major buzz. opening against XMen, it also doesn't have the benefit of being the lone blockbuster. you have Ninja Turtles opening the week after.
if this opens to $70M and can get past $225M domestic then I'd think the studio would be happy. I know I'll be surprised.
Even though BvS is now ahead of Zootopia. I believe Zoo will finish higher. Did anyone see this? {nm} Apr 17, 18:14
Considering how BvS is dropping, Zootopia could come back on top. {nm} Apr 17, 18:19
It will be close. I do think Zoo will squeak it out. BvS lost 597 screens compared to Zoos 235. {nm} Apr 17, 18:24
Alice sequel, Jungle Book, Tarzan all have promise to make 330M. {nm} Apr 17, 18:32
The first Alice did 330+M/1B+> I see it doing close to 400M. Never know with Tarzan. Burroughs needs a win. {nm} Apr 17, 20:57
IDK, I just see it taking a massive dip. Heck, it's about a month away and the current stock is priced at a $51M OW. Apr 17, 21:54
Also, and I just realized this, it's opening opposite XMEN6. {nm} Apr 17, 21:59
IMO, Alice will have trouble with $250M (if even that). this film did well because people were thirsty for a Disney Live action at that time Apr 18, 06:02
I'd be surprised if it crosses $200M Dom. Internationally it could do very well, though. {nm} Apr 18, 09:13
if it opens at $60M or under I don't think it has a shot at $200M. could certainly see it falling that far on the OW. {nm} Apr 18, 10:32
I noticed on 4/7 that the trend in SUPE2 could potentially have it gross under ZOOTP (link inside)... Apr 18, 05:30
SUPE2's performance recalls both GODZL's struggle to reach 200M and the angry disappointment the movie generated. {nm} Apr 18, 06:13
ha, yes! I do remember that now gary. and it was fresh rated from the critics. rare a blockbuster Apr 18, 06:17
*by over 5% {nm} Apr 18, 06:20
Cranston did demand attention in those trailers for Zilla, btw. I think Watchmen is worth a view. Apr 18, 06:59
Ditto on "talking myself out of seeing" something. I've done that with AVNGR, WATCH and SUPE2. {nm} Apr 18, 07:48