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Lets take a look at total multiples for "Marvel new character solo films"
I defined "Marvel New Character Solo Films" as
A) Marvel comic character (includes HOWARD THE DUCK!). I used mojo's MARVEL COMICS Franchise for this.
B) A character's first film where they are the sole protagnonist (so X-MEN WOLVERINE counts but GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY doesn't). It didn't matter to me that they had been introduced in a prior film, like BLACK PANTER in CAPTAIN AMERICA CIVIL WAR
C) I'm still assuming CAPTAIN MARVEL does $395m domestic for this. We know it will break $400, but I want to make the same assumptions from unique pov that was used to say that "Marvel new character solo films usually pull around 3x multiplier domestically, or around there". Since its multiple will only improve as it hits its actual projected total box office, thats fine for this.
I pulled 19 films (via boxofficemojo). Seven have a total multiple of over 3. Those films are:
BLADE (4.1)
BIG HERO SIX (3.96)
SPIDER-MAN (3.52)
BLACK PANTHER (3.47)
IRON MAN (3.23)
HOWARD THE DUCK (3.21)
ANT-MAN (3.15)
Only 37% hit a multiple of 3 and of theose seven, and only two opened over $100m (SPIDER-MAN and BLACK PANTHER). The lower your opening weekend, the easier it is to hit a 3 multiple. If a film breaks $100m or more opening weekend, like CAPTAIN MARVEL, its not often you hit that 3 multiple as only two films (or 10.5%) did this.
The closest to 3 but didnt hit 3 is THOR and 2.75 and DEADPOOL and DOCTOR STRANGER at 2.74. Those aren't "around" 3
Again, its safe to say that from a distribution exec pov, no one was expecting CAPTAIN MARVEL to hit a 3 multiple. VictorY is only using this metric to try to fit CAPTAIN MARVEL into his ignorant world view and amateur and inaccarate box office analysis.
Considering how well CAPTAIN MARVEL opened, its legs have been exactly as expected for a film that was widely embraced by fans (a little less than half the total audience in this case) and general audiences alike.
Data below (if HSX allows c&p from excel which is hit and miss)
| Title | Gross / Theaters | Opening / Theaters | Multiple |
| Blade | $70,087,718 | $17,073,856 | 4.10 |
| Big Hero 6 | $222,527,828 | $56,215,889 | 3.96 |
| Spider-Man | $403,706,375 | $114,844,116 | 3.52 |
| Black Panther | $700,059,566 | $202,003,951 | 3.47 |
| Iron Man | $318,412,101 | $98,618,668 | 3.23 |
| Howard the Duck | $16,295,774 | $5,070,136 | 3.21 |
| Ant-Man | $180,202,163 | $57,225,526 | 3.15 |
| Thor | $181,030,624 | $65,723,338 | 2.75 |
| Deadpool | $363,070,709 | $132,434,639 | 2.74 |
| Doctor Strange | $232,641,920 | $85,058,311 | 2.74 |
| Captain America: The First Avenger | $176,654,505 | $65,058,524 | 2.72 |
| Venom (2018) | $213,515,506 | $80,255,756 | 2.66 |
| Captain Marvel | $395,000,000 | $153,433,423 | 2.57 |
| Ghost Rider | $115,802,596 | $45,388,836 | 2.55 |
| Daredevil | $102,543,518 | $40,310,419 | 2.54 |
| The Punisher | $33,810,189 | $13,834,527 | 2.44 |
| Hulk | $132,177,234 | $62,128,420 | 2.13 |
| X-Men Origins: Wolverine | $179,883,157 | $85,058,003 | 2.11 |
| Elektra | $24,409,722 | $12,804,793 | 1.91 |
Lets take a look at total multiples for "Marvel new character solo films" Apr 06, 13:23
Thanks for this. I'm sorry you had to do it, but find it valuable in it's own right. {nm} Apr 06, 13:59
It's still pacing nicely ahead of Hunger Games that it could make it to 400M. {nm} Apr 06, 14:37
Don't see it beating HG's final gross of 408. Doesn't have the same legs. {nm} Apr 06, 15:38
Their opening weekends were just 1M apart. As of Thursday CM is 19M ahead. Apr 06, 16:11
Endgame is giving it a boost. Its general audience number increased from week 1 to week 2 so non fans are catching up Apr 06, 16:37
Really its 19m ahead and is still neck and neck on a daily basis against stronger competition. {nm} Apr 06, 18:14
"The lower your opening weekend, the easier it is to hit a 3 multiple." {nm} Apr 06, 15:42
I get that.. but we're talking CM being at GS and DD levels here. That doesn't scream strength to me. {nm} Apr 06, 15:46
Captain Marvel has more than doubled the combined worldwide grosses of GR and DD. Apr 06, 16:45
Combined, those two only grossed ~407.92 WW - which CMARV could hit domestically. {nm} Apr 06, 15:48
We're talking the film mulitples, not the overall gross. {nm} Apr 06, 15:50
What matters is how you finish, not how you start. Don't see CM beating HG #'s overall {nm} Apr 06, 16:00
You're spreading misinformation again. Captain Marvel's total multiple will be within 5% of Hunger Games. Apr 06, 16:23
Within 5 percent? So it'd be a lower multiple, you're saying? {nm} Apr 06, 16:48
aside from all this, how are you doing these days? staying well i hope! {nm} Apr 06, 16:38
Ha, yes thanks. Enjoying your analysis here ... ~400m = a wonderful result. Best wishes from the antipodes! {nm} Apr 06, 16:55
thats great to hear! And thanks! although its less an analysis and more a reality check {nm} Apr 06, 17:03
Actually Studios would rather have a 400m film with a 150 opening then one with a 100m opening Apr 07, 08:50
thats not true anymore. Most films dont use a rolling film rental anymore {nm} Apr 07, 08:53
Of course as you ignore the facts and make things up to fit your narrow view. It will pass HG. {nm} Apr 07, 08:52
Great discussion board. Really enjoying the data. So what we have -- (full take inside). Apr 06, 17:19
Are you a cherry picker for a living? Apr 06, 18:41
At this point you are just being ignorant or a troll. Probably both. HSX is a site for people who love movies, Apr 06, 18:50
Your entire argument that it's not a success is based on a single point - its multiplier compared to other first outings Apr 07, 05:04
There was an Elektra movie?! {nm} Apr 08, 09:15
