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And I also shorted the put.... Ooops. Anyhew, this further corroborates that the LAT are no longer a perfect prophet.

Posted by: Facto on May 22, 09:09 in response to Facto's post Still, it hardly mitigates the blow for us...

Even their prediction was too high. Third week in a row now: Iron Man 2, Robin Hood and Shrek Forever After. What happened to the box office, after last year was so very much on steroids? 3D killed it, or just a slew of anti-climactic releases... ?

I know the creators of and the studio behind How To Train Your Dragon aren't complaining.

ERC: SHRK4 72M the MGRUB 4M {nm} Vashta Nerada May 22, 08:36

Gut check review: SHRK4 around 14-7-0, MGRUB around 3-14-2. {nm} second gary May 22, 08:40

Long-short-abstain? {nm} Facto May 22, 08:59

Yes. {nm} second gary May 22, 09:06

If you're going to do abstains then you need to include all the people patting themselves on the back who didn't post a gut check. {nm} secretstalker May 22, 09:09

Count me in that group. {nm} PendenteLite May 22, 10:05

I thought I definitely saw several abstainers for Shrek. Perhaps you didn't count in all the gut-check threads.. ? {nm} Facto May 22, 09:10

On second look, I see one SHRK4 abstainer in the second thread, lapuckfan. But there are always enough fuzzy declarations to make... second gary May 22, 17:51

Yes 2/2.....batting 1.000 over the past month. well including the robin hood, being that it fell after adjust. {nm} NOLEAFCLOVR May 22, 10:01

Abstaining from an opening is basically admitting that you are a complete lightweight. {nm} lhayes37 May 22, 11:24

Dropoffs: RBNHD 18M, 50% LJULT 9M, 33.5% JUSTW 4.5M, 45.4% {nm} Vashta Nerada May 22, 08:43

IRMN2 projection is coming in about $3M lite with actuals but with next week being a long weekend it should still delist within the Vashta Nerada May 22, 09:09

So probably within 275-280M, then... (?) {nm} Facto May 22, 09:14

You didn't include Monday in your projections and that's about $4 mil you didn't account for right there. {nm} secretstalker May 22, 09:19

You may want to tag your delist posts so we can find them easier later. {nm} secretstalker May 22, 09:23

That is unreal. I shorted MGRUB.....I was pretty sure it was short but 4??? 4 mil WOW {nm} Borat May 22, 09:01

Still, it hardly mitigates the blow for us SHRK4-longers/MGRUB shorters... Only 400k profits, vs 2,5M loss on Shrek. Holy macaroni. Facto May 22, 09:04

The MGRUB short is worth $1.0-1.1M. The halt was $32 and change. {nm} second gary May 22, 09:07

A-ha.. Poor thinking on my part. I was thinking OW; and not adjust-prices. So naturally then 2.7 better profits than I calculated. Facto May 22, 09:12

That would be "dissolved in alcohol", of course.. Another pointer as to how bad the situation actually was :-D {nm} Facto May 23, 18:30

And I also shorted the put.... Ooops. Anyhew, this further corroborates that the LAT are no longer a perfect prophet. Facto May 22, 09:09

Yes I'm painfully aware. {nm} Borat May 22, 09:11

Bust, all I had was Shrek long. {nm} Instro May 22, 10:18





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Outcome (OUTCM) 150000 5.84 (-4.02)          Natalie Portman (NPORT) 24999 100.31 (+0.90)          Mark Ruffalo (MRUFF) 25000 68.43 (-36.24)          Mark Ruffalo (MRUFF) 25000 68.43 (-36.24)          Outcome (OUTCM) 150000 5.84 (-4.02)          Andy Samberg (ASAMB) 1 103.56 (+0.83)          Rachel Sennott (RSENN) 25000 7.89 (-0.10)          Zendaya (ZENDA) 25000 134.17 (-2.35)          The Riders (RIDER) 150000 36.57 (+2.08)          Zendaya (ZENDA) 25000 134.17 (-2.35)          The Riders (RIDER) 150000 36.57 (+2.08)          Andy Samberg (ASAMB) 1 103.56 (+0.83)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 150000 11.59 (-0.95)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 150000 11.59 (-0.95)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 13.91 (-0.97)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 13.91 (-0.97)          America Ferrera (AFERR) 25000 120.44 (+13.19)          America Ferrera (AFERR) 25000 120.44 (+13.19)          GOAT (TGOAT) 150000 60.82 (-1.43)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.28 (+1.61)          GOAT (TGOAT) 150000 60.82 (-1.43)          Alexander Skarsgard (ASKAR) 25000 30.76 (-0.12)          Oprah Winfrey (OWINF) 25000 64.03 (0.00)          Aaron Eckhart (AECKH) 1 13.35 (+0.03)          Nick Robinson (NROBI) 25000 15.79 (+0.10)          Jackie Earle Haley (JEHAL) 25000 31.11 (0.00)          Adam Driver (ADRIV) 25000 22.27 (-0.13)          Juno Temple (JTEMP) 25000 61.72 (+0.26)          Outcome (OUTCM) 150000 5.84 (-4.02)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 8.94 (-0.19)          Will Ferrell (WFERR) 25000 106.54 (-0.57)          Steven Spielberg (SSPIE) 25000 44.59 (+0.16)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 25000 10.83 (-0.35)          Danny Trejo (DTREJ) 25000 113.02 (0.00)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 25000 10.83 (-0.35)          Andy Samberg (ASAMB) 7766 103.56 (+0.83)          Andy Samberg (ASAMB) 7766 103.56 (+0.83)          Sam Riley (SRILE) 25000 24.30 (-0.37)          Will Arnett (WARNE) 25000 33.18 (-2.22)          Aaron Eckhart (AECKH) 25000 13.35 (+0.03)          Islands (ISLNS) 150000 0.23 (-0.01)          Amy Madigan (AMADI) 1000 34.11 (+0.10)          Amy Madigan (AMADI) 1000 34.11 (+0.10)          Ciaran Hinds (CHIND) 25000 62.50 (+0.82)          Iron Lung (IRONL) 100000 24.24 (-0.12)          Ciaran Hinds (CHIND) 1 62.50 (+0.82)          Bradley Cooper (BCOOP) 25000 126.91 (-0.02)          Ciaran Hinds (CHIND) 25000 62.50 (+0.82)          Bradley Cooper (BCOOP) 25000 126.91 (-0.02)          Will Arnett (WARNE) 1 33.18 (-2.22)