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I do think the gap will limit the ceiling on opening weekend, though there are examples of that not being a huge issue.
JJ Star Trek and Force Awakens had similar gaps between last feature films and still opened big time and of course TOP GUN MAVERICK had several decades. Ultimately it'll wind up as to what kind of theatrical experience it winds up being and if it's one that will lead itself to multiple repeat viewings. It's only big competition is ANTM3 for Presidents Day weekend (and word is that ANTM3 is "just ok") and otherwise there's just an unusually competitive March 2023 with significant tentpoles back to back to back through MARIO in April that will finally drain whatever screens it can hold to that point.
PSA. AVATAR 2 should hit non-internal industry tracking reports this week. (It goes on advance sale next week) Nov 13, 09:42
I wish I got the impression that it could break out like SPID8 last year but not sure how young people feel about it. Nov 13, 11:51
I do think the gap will limit the ceiling on opening weekend, though there are examples of that not being a huge issue. Nov 13, 14:58
I don't think the fandoms for Star Trek and Star Wars are quite the same as that for Avatar. :) {nm} Nov 13, 20:31