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10. Indiana Jones and the outsized expectations
I’m not gonna predict, sight unseen, which movies will or won’t exceed projections this year (except maybe Cocaine Bear, which will definitely gross a bazillion dollars). But I was a bit surprised to see Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30) on a bunch of lists as a possible top-grosser of 2023. It’s a big franchise, no doubt, and the first time the Disney machine has had a crack at an Indy movie, via Lucasfilm. But it’s James Mangold directing, not Spielberg; and Harrison Ford is now 80 and—if we’re being honest—looks it, and the marketing is off to a bit of a bumpy start.
Because the trailer debuted at Brazil Comic Con on Dec. 1, the same day as two other high profile summer trailers—Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9) and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 (May 5)—rival studios were able to compare views to gauge relative strength out of the gate. After two weeks across YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok, here were the numbers, per a studio source:
Transformers 7: 506 million views
Guardians of Galaxy 3: 187 million views
Indiana Jones 5: 79 million views
There’s still time, of course, and it might be that the Indy audience isn’t the most online. But the coronation seems premature.