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Whatever the motivator, it isn't creating an accurate predictor...

Posted by: Intheway on Aug 16, 15:53 in response to Scorpion [FOXX Fund]'s post The point is that the market, as a whole, is a pretty...

Facto's got it right.

I went back and checked the last 53 adjusts (going back to March).

The HSX consensus (reflected by the halt price) compared to the adjust price came out with this record:

Within 1% - 2 films 3.77%

1-3%	5	9.43%
3-5%	2	3.77%
5-10%	9	16.98%
10-20%	11	20.75%
>20%	23	43.40%

While the overall average disparity was "only" $6.36 on an average halt price of $83.52, the average overestimate was a full $16.05, or 19.1% of the average halt price, and, oddly enough, the average underestimate was also $16.05 of the halt price.

In short, a predictor that only comes within 20%, plus or minus, of what it is attempting to predict, is just not a very good predictor.

This is a game, and we get to pretend we know something, but the people who are doing best at the game are those who are better at the game than other players, not because they know movies.

Some fun facts from my research:

The closest case since March, Eat Pray Love - A $.32 adjust This was also the closest adjust on a percentage basis, representing 0.50% of the halt price.

The worst case adjust on dollar basis - Karate Kid, underestimated by the HSX community to the tune of $58.91 a share (a 38.96% adjust) There were two others very close, Robin Hood, overestimated by $58.39 (157.34% off from the halt) and Despicable Me, underestimated by $58.28 (35.90% margin of error from the halt)

The worst percentage error belongs to MacGruber - 197.11%. A dollar loss of $21.82 after a halt at $32.89.

TheWrap: HSX to Live On, Cantor Insider Says Sandston Aug 15, 22:18

*fingers crossed* {nm} tealfan Aug 15, 22:39

and toes {nm} Moviesnob Aug 15, 23:47

That's cool. New owners on the horizon maybe...I have always enjoyed this site. =) {nm} Catzan Aug 16, 00:15

hmmm.i maybe read a different article from you? sounds terrible to me. "makes no money" and "turn into more robust...operation" imho means islander Aug 16, 00:21

from my experience of these things, any buyer looking at taking HSX on... Somerset Aug 16, 01:14

if the site makes no money, then it is not a "format that works", and I know how we all say how we would be willing to pay to play, my gut islander Aug 16, 06:04

I could probably give a darn good change at making money without changing current game play much, if at all. Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 07:35

Change = Chance {nm} Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 07:36

In fact, I already made a flowchart on it....now, where's that patent application again....... {nm} Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 08:13

'Alec Baldwin's Hollywood Stock Exchange" -- I'd never heard that tidbit before. {nm} edzep Aug 16, 04:35