HSX Forums: Movies Board






Right.

Posted by: Intheway on Aug 16, 09:09 in response to Sandston's post TheWrap: HSX to Live On, Cantor Insider Says

"Out of the non-research-based prognosticators, they are the most accurate," said one tracking-firm research head. "That's because it isn't an individual guessing. It's the invisible hand of the market adjusting the number to a mass, agreed-upon number."

[SPILG] adjusts 43% down from where "the invisible hand of the market" thought it should be, and we're the most accurate prognosticators?  What are the other guys doing, reading tea leaves?

The accurate call for [ETPLV] is far more the exception than the rule.

"And the people playing it all know movies, so it isn't just one person looking at secondary data."

Utter nonsense. 

There are a lot of people here who know movies, and a lot of people here who think they know movies, and there are a lot of people here like me, who not only doesn't know movies, but hasn't been in a theater since "Blues Brothers 2000," (and that was because some friends were in it.)  My own portfolio tells me it is more important for HSX success to have read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness of Crowds" than it is to have read Cahiers Du Cinema, as long as you remember to short anything that depends on Matthew McConaughey. 

HSX is a great deal of fun.  I've joined over 12 years ago, and with a couple years off in the middle, I've been a steady player.  But it's only a game folks.  Somebody should have reminded Cantor of that.


 


Tag(s): SPILG, ETPLV

TheWrap: HSX to Live On, Cantor Insider Says   Sandston on Aug 15, 22:18

*fingers crossed* {nm}   tealfan on Aug 15, 22:39

and toes {nm}   Moviesnob on Aug 15, 23:47

That's cool. New owners on the horizon maybe...I have always enjoyed this site. =) {nm}   Catzan on Aug 16, 00:15

hmmm.i maybe read a different article from you? sounds terrible to me. "makes no money" and "turn into more robust...operation" imho means    islander on Aug 16, 00:21

from my experience of these things, any buyer looking at taking HSX on...    Somerset on Aug 16, 01:14

if the site makes no money, then it is not a "format that works", and I know how we all say how we would be willing to pay to play, my gut   islander on Aug 16, 06:04

I could probably give a darn good change at making money without changing current game play much, if at all.   Scorpion [FOXX Fund] on Aug 16, 07:35

Change = Chance {nm}   Scorpion [FOXX Fund] on Aug 16, 07:36

In fact, I already made a flowchart on it....now, where's that patent application again....... {nm}   Scorpion [FOXX Fund] on Aug 16, 08:13

'Alec Baldwin's Hollywood Stock Exchange" -- I'd never heard that tidbit before. {nm}   edzep on Aug 16, 04:35

I better buy ABALD for when he jacks his own bond price up to $300... {nm}   secretstalker on Aug 16, 05:57

but he leaves you a voicemail calling you a thoughtless little pig if you short his stock ;) {nm}   islander on Aug 16, 06:06

The best news of this month! {nm}   Peterlee on Aug 16, 06:01

~Gettin' jiggy wit it~ {nm}   Facto on Aug 16, 06:12

Was the emploee roster really ever reduced from 5 to 1? {nm}   Shrike on Aug 16, 07:35

Nothing new here. Happened right around July 1st - so about 7 weeks ago. Why do you question this piece of information.. ?   Facto on Aug 16, 08:14

So Dmac is the only guy working for HSX then? I thought id seen a few other posts by staff since then which is why i question. {nm}   Shrike on Aug 16, 12:19

Can't say that I have seen such posts... {nm}   Facto on Aug 17, 06:48

Right.   Intheway on Aug 16, 09:09

Last time I tracked HSX accuracy [somewhere around 2007/2008] the market's average adjust was H$0.56 over the course of a year   Scorpion [FOXX Fund] on Aug 16, 09:17

I have a suspicion..   Facto on Aug 16, 09:29

The point is that the market, as a whole, is a pretty good indicator.   Scorpion [FOXX Fund] on Aug 16, 09:41

Whatever the motivator, it isn't creating an accurate predictor...   Intheway on Aug 16, 15:53





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Five Feet Apart (5FTAP) 100000 14.34 (+1.43)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 429.97 (-0.25)         Cats (CATS) 100000 24.68 (+0.99)         Cats (CATS) 100000 24.68 (+0.99)         Gotti (GOTTI) 500 2.20 (-0.81)         Peter Rabbit 2 (PRAB2) 5000 53.53 (-2.28)         Unfriended: Dark Web (UNFR2) 5000 26.21 (-1.28)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 429.97 (-0.25)         Race 3 (RACE3) 100000 4.65 (+0.22)         Gotti (GOTTI) 80003 2.20 (-0.81)         Bad Dads (BDADS) 100000 12.72 (+1.40)         Tag (TAG) 100000 35.25 (-0.64)         Uncle Drew H$15 Call (UDREW.CA) 20000 2.71 (-0.05)         The Darkest Minds (DRKMN) 100000 28.88 (+2.48)         Tag (TAG) 100000 35.25 (-0.64)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 429.97 (-0.25)         The Darkest Minds (DRKMN) 100000 28.88 (+2.48)         Gotti (GOTTI) 100000 2.20 (-0.81)         Peter Rabbit 2 (PRAB2) 100000 53.53 (-2.28)         Superfly (SPRFL) 1 21.90 (+0.01)         Kit Harington (KHARI) 888 58.33 (0.00)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 429.97 (-0.25)         Alden Ehrenreich (AEHRE) 1 49.98 (0.00)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 99000 263.32 (+1.23)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 429.97 (-0.25)         The Darkest Minds (DRKMN) 15000 28.88 (+2.48)         Ron Howard (RHOWA) 1 53.05 (+0.66)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 1000 429.97 (-0.25)         Solo: A Star Wars Story $195M Bl (SWAR2.BW) 20000 5.64 (+0.64)         Wonder Woman 1984 (WOND2) 1000 276.95 (-0.83)         Uncle Drew H$15 Call (UDREW.CA) 20000 2.71 (-0.05)         Thandie Newton (TNEWT) 5389 34.63 (+0.10)         Kin (KIN) 1 24.23 (+1.06)         Kin (KIN) 15000 24.23 (+1.06)         Clark Duke (CDUKE) 20000 39.16 (-0.16)         Captain Marvel (CMARV) 50000 193.39 (-0.01)         Solo: A Star Wars Story $195M Bl (SWAR2.BW) 20000 5.64 (+0.64)         Venom (VENM1) 50000 144.84 (-0.25)         Clark Duke (CDUKE) 1 39.16 (-0.16)         Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 1 73.82 (+0.66)         Gigantic (GGNTC) 75000 16.19 (-0.11)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 429.97 (-0.25)         Bumblebee aka Transformers 6 (TFRM6) 166 95.24 (+0.10)         Peter Rabbit 2 (PRAB2) 2500 53.53 (-2.28)         Chris O'Dowd (CODOW) 20000 32.18 (+0.16)         Sweetheart (SWTHT) 100000 1.43 (+0.04)         Tell It To The Bees (TITTB) 100000 3.35 (-0.08)         Race 3 (RACE3) 100000 4.65 (+0.22)         Paul Bettany (PBETT) 898 165.38 (+1.14)         Solo: A Star Wars Story $195M Bl (SWAR2.BW) 20000 5.64 (+0.64)