HSX Forum

Movies

Right.

Posted by: Intheway on Aug 16, 09:09 in response to Sandston's post TheWrap: HSX to Live On, Cantor Insider Says

"Out of the non-research-based prognosticators, they are the most accurate," said one tracking-firm research head. "That's because it isn't an individual guessing. It's the invisible hand of the market adjusting the number to a mass, agreed-upon number."

[SPILG] adjusts 43% down from where "the invisible hand of the market" thought it should be, and we're the most accurate prognosticators?  What are the other guys doing, reading tea leaves?

The accurate call for [ETPLV] is far more the exception than the rule.

"And the people playing it all know movies, so it isn't just one person looking at secondary data."

Utter nonsense. 

There are a lot of people here who know movies, and a lot of people here who think they know movies, and there are a lot of people here like me, who not only doesn't know movies, but hasn't been in a theater since "Blues Brothers 2000," (and that was because some friends were in it.)  My own portfolio tells me it is more important for HSX success to have read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness of Crowds" than it is to have read Cahiers Du Cinema, as long as you remember to short anything that depends on Matthew McConaughey. 

HSX is a great deal of fun.  I've joined over 12 years ago, and with a couple years off in the middle, I've been a steady player.  But it's only a game folks.  Somebody should have reminded Cantor of that.


 


Tag(s): SPILG, ETPLV

TheWrap: HSX to Live On, Cantor Insider Says Sandston Aug 15, 22:18

*fingers crossed* {nm} tealfan Aug 15, 22:39

and toes {nm} Moviesnob Aug 15, 23:47

That's cool. New owners on the horizon maybe...I have always enjoyed this site. =) {nm} Catzan Aug 16, 00:15

hmmm.i maybe read a different article from you? sounds terrible to me. "makes no money" and "turn into more robust...operation" imho means islander Aug 16, 00:21

from my experience of these things, any buyer looking at taking HSX on... Somerset Aug 16, 01:14

if the site makes no money, then it is not a "format that works", and I know how we all say how we would be willing to pay to play, my gut islander Aug 16, 06:04

I could probably give a darn good change at making money without changing current game play much, if at all. Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 07:35

Change = Chance {nm} Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 07:36

In fact, I already made a flowchart on it....now, where's that patent application again....... {nm} Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 08:13

'Alec Baldwin's Hollywood Stock Exchange" -- I'd never heard that tidbit before. {nm} edzep Aug 16, 04:35

I better buy ABALD for when he jacks his own bond price up to $300... {nm} secretstalker Aug 16, 05:57

but he leaves you a voicemail calling you a thoughtless little pig if you short his stock ;) {nm} islander Aug 16, 06:06

The best news of this month! {nm} Peterlee Aug 16, 06:01

~Gettin' jiggy wit it~ {nm} Facto Aug 16, 06:12

Was the emploee roster really ever reduced from 5 to 1? {nm} Shrike Aug 16, 07:35

Nothing new here. Happened right around July 1st - so about 7 weeks ago. Why do you question this piece of information.. ? Facto Aug 16, 08:14

So Dmac is the only guy working for HSX then? I thought id seen a few other posts by staff since then which is why i question. {nm} Shrike Aug 16, 12:19

Can't say that I have seen such posts... {nm} Facto Aug 17, 06:48

Right. Intheway Aug 16, 09:09

Last time I tracked HSX accuracy [somewhere around 2007/2008] the market's average adjust was H$0.56 over the course of a year Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 09:17

I have a suspicion.. Facto Aug 16, 09:29

The point is that the market, as a whole, is a pretty good indicator. Scorpion [FOXX Fund] Aug 16, 09:41

Whatever the motivator, it isn't creating an accurate predictor... Intheway Aug 16, 15:53





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Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Varanasi (VARAN) 1 11.44 (+0.47)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Mouse (MOUSE) 150000 1.80 (-0.08)          Mouse (MOUSE) 150000 1.80 (-0.08)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 20.60 (+0.03)          Airman (AIRMA) 150000 19.98 (+0.03)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 8.79 (-3.37)          Shameik Moore (SMOOR) 25000 91.79 (-1.10)          Hey Joe (TUMIA) 150000 0.15 (+0.14)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.98 (+1.01)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 75000 5.22 (+0.21)          Seance on a Wet Afternoon (SOAWA) 75000 5.30 (+0.11)          Bad Bridgets (BRDGT) 150000 6.33 (+0.50)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 149999 20.00 (0.00)          Varanasi (VARAN) 149999 11.44 (+0.47)          Wild Horse Nine (WILDH) 149999 10.05 (+0.20)          Michael (MJACK) 240 183.59 (-0.06)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 400 208.80 (+0.73)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 140000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 80000 20.00 (0.00)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.98 (+1.01)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Call (PRJHM.CA) 4500 3.75 (+0.27)          Three Incestuous Sisters (3INCS) 150000 12.85 (-0.56)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 149999 5.74 (-0.06)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 100 495.05 (-0.51)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 149999 5.74 (-0.06)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 200 495.05 (-0.51)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Varanasi (VARAN) 150000 11.44 (+0.47)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 150000 5.21 (-1.25)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 110827 304.39 (+1.00)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 1929 262.17 (+1.50)          Danielle Brooks (DBROO) 25000 104.12 (+1.02)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 24500 21.04 (-0.15)          Mckenna Grace (MCGRA) 25000 78.81 (+0.25)          Richard Ayoade (RAYOA) 25000 32.78 (+1.16)          Jack Dylan Grazer (JDGRA) 24900 54.42 (-0.33)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Joel McHale (JMCHA) 25000 26.51 (+0.12)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 17703 262.17 (+1.50)          Kurt Russell (KRUSS) 25000 155.79 (-0.50)          Andy Samberg (ASAMB) 25000 91.59 (-0.25)          Chris Columbus (CCOLU) 25000 88.48 (-0.25)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 150000 5.21 (-1.25)          Willem Dafoe (WDAFO) 24999 63.80 (+0.49)          Paul Walter Hauser (PWHAU) 25000 114.98 (-1.00)