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Btw, before anyone asks (or since some may wonder without asking)

Posted by: Facto on Apr 10, 20:26 in response to Rolling_Thunder's post Speculation is welcome here - I have enough experience to...

I don't believe I was holding any shares of that security, when commenting on your post. But anyone claiming to not know the significance of their words in this forum, on how it may affect stock movement, are either incredibly naive, or lying through their teeth. You seem to be be neither.

On the contrary, your description of yourself on your profile page, indicated that you are very seasoned in all relevant arenas. Also, the rep you accredit yourself with, will definitely add to the weight of your statements on the boards - not least when it comes to predicting opening weekends.

Personally, I lend little credence to box office derby rankings. Most people who engage in those, have too little of a clue, and go to one of the extremes - making it relatively easy to stay safe in the middle, and come out on top in the long run, if one is diligent. So, it counts towards your diligence, for me, and towards accuracy, to some degree. But if you are making posts based on the weight you carry, so to speak, it would be great to have some real numbers and valid comparisons - i.e. documentation. Something that lends credence to the numbers you throw out, besides just your credentials. I believe xiayun is good with providing at least some backing for his (very valuable) forecasts/gut checks - and regardless, we know we will get it in his blog, sometime during Friday.

Either way, I'm not sure what your statement of knowing what you are talking about was meant to reflect back upon? The fact that speculation is welcome here - or the weight your predictions carry, in and of themselves? I maintain that no one has a crystal ball - unless they are working for MTC or perform oversight in some other company performing tracking surveys.. Either way, I am interested in your input, and would love it if you substantiated somewhat more than just throwing numbers out there. (I hope you aren't forgetting what you wrote about yourself on your profile, and that less seasoned players, and less insider personnel, might attach too much relevance to what you write - believing perhaps that you have special access to early trackinig (although I'd say the tone of your relevant post here does not suggest that, in and of itself - it's only when seen in connection with your description of yourself on the player profile page, and taking into account your short follow up quip in response to me, added with some air of clout and/or authority - that it seems as if you are suggesting that you are talking from a position of better info than available to the average player.. and if so, I for one wouldn't mind a bit of clarification. I'm sure everyone loves a little piece of great, savvy analysis, but just numbers for numbers sake can get both confusing and a little tiresome.)

I'd just wish to know where your input is coming from, and what significance to attach to it. We seem to both think that Rio will do quite well, but I don't know why you think that. You prognosticate a prognosticator - MTC. And forget to mention that Rio is up against formidable competition this particular opening weekend, with Hop a strong holdover, and Scream 4 so far predicted to be the biggest opener.. Perhaps the market place will expand a little, to accomodate all, but what I am saying, based on what I've read other experienced analysts say, is that Rio's success will come from strong kiddie-flick + WOM legs, more than an explosive opening weekend. And in the end, only time will tell. Even the most seasoned box office analysts get taken quite by surprise, from time to time.. Or isn't that so? Smile

Ps. The entire point of how you, or anyone is holding, was retorical - of course Wink (First of, it would be obvious, given what you posted, + as players, we can't ask, normally, except for around gutchecks time.)

RS: Scream high 40s, Rio mid 30s (really?), Conspirator 2 secretstalker Apr 10, 14:50

Is the really? for RIO surprise because it should be higher or lower cp6ap Apr 10, 14:59

Higher. {nm} secretstalker Apr 10, 15:10

I agree the RIO targeting, marketing and reviews have been first class - it will be no 1 next week cp6ap Apr 10, 15:31

You have no IM.. Of course, movies opening at 30+, outside of the summer/Xmas seasons, quite often become no 1 for that weekend.. Facto Apr 10, 16:41

I won't be surprised to see MTC come in quite a bit higher with RIO, which could point to $45m+. {nm} Rolling_Thunder Apr 10, 15:30

That's pure speculation (you probably hold long and want to cut your losses?). The box office forecast sites had Rio at a slowish start, but Facto Apr 10, 16:26

(not sites, but site - the one with forecasts for all bigger movies opening the next few months) {nm} Facto Apr 10, 16:27

Speculation is welcome here - I have enough experience to know what I'm talking about, Facto. {nm} Rolling_Thunder Apr 10, 18:48

You have a crystal ball, you mean.. ? :-) Tell me instead whether you were holding the stock long at the time of posting Facto Apr 10, 19:54

(judging the worth and weight of your post, I mean - for my own personal use) Facto Apr 10, 19:55

Btw, before anyone asks (or since some may wonder without asking) Facto Apr 10, 20:26

Case in point (for Rio predictions) Facto Apr 10, 20:40

Aww comon...Rolling T has been around for ages and I think his bio speaks enough. You want a factor that will be interesting to watch...we Catzan Apr 10, 23:50

Eh, seems you're missing my point :-) Did you read all I wrote? Facto Apr 10, 23:56

His documentation of his statement is that he has the experience to make that statement. He has seen it in the past. So have I. Hence it is Catzan Apr 11, 00:28

Well, you most surely know him better than I do, so I'm not gonna argue with that. Perhaps the comment was purely motivated by enthusiasm an Facto Apr 11, 01:03

I'm more surprised by Prom, but this is RS after all {nm} Moviesnob Apr 10, 15:07

RS Futures have only been 42% accurate in the last 3 weeks. I'm still working on the entire 2011, but for now I wouldn't count on RS Future {nm} PVL Admin Apr 10, 16:29

Yes, I still don't understand why people bother reacting much to RS figures. Still, as long as they do, active traders will always have the Facto Apr 10, 16:30

RS can be used in combination with other tools to get at least a sense of the direction. Confirmation tool vs. action tool. {nm} PVL Admin Apr 10, 16:32

That's true, of course - but requires expertise/some skill. This is a note to new/casual players that they should not attach too much signif Facto Apr 10, 16:36

Exactly! What I am trying to add is that even though I am totally anti-RS, it can still serve a purpose of some kind. {nm} PVL Admin Apr 10, 16:38

Yes - also in keeping us alert, reflecting and social.. {nm} Facto Apr 10, 16:42

Not sure who is going to watch Prom; I think twas DMac who wrote: jane_citizen Apr 10, 22:22

I'd bet my whole port that Rio does more than that in the OW. {nm} MiyazakiFan Apr 10, 20:16

Really? :-) Facto Apr 10, 20:28

Re Conspirator, it could do a lot in 12 weeks if it did $2mil in its OW jane_citizen Apr 10, 22:19

That one is a real curiosity piece...looks like all the makings of a big distrib release and yet it isn't w/one of the big boys...there is a Catzan Apr 10, 23:54

My understanding is that it wasn't super-well-received at festivals jane_citizen Apr 11, 00:19

Ok, thanks...I mean it has the earmarks of a "passion project"...I don't think I am booked for it, I'll find out tomorrow. {nm} Catzan Apr 11, 00:55

Except that there is a better than good chance that 550 is low if it's being considered a wide release by RS. secretstalker Apr 11, 07:25

You forgot to tag [WELPH] for this RS post. {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Apr 13, 20:15

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